GrowthRater

Deteriorating US NFP – a negative lead indicator for marketing investment

US labor laws mean that US companies can hire and fire with relative impunity. Regardless of the longer term advisability of treating what ought to be a longer term resourse as swing capacity, it does afford equity markets with a near real time metric of US corporate investment and an effective lead indicator. When firm’s […]

US non-farm payrolls in May – temporary jobs disguise sharp contraction in full time employment

May represented another month of aenemic employment growth, with seasonally adjusted private sector additions of only 82k, after April’s revised +87k and expectations of around +150k. Including a further contraction in Govt employment (of -13k vs April’s -10k), overall monthly employment increased by a mere +69k vs April’s +77k and Q1’s average of +252k pm. […]

Reed Elsevier (REL LN/REN AS): Maybe there’s life in the old dog yet?

Reed ElsevierÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PlcÂ (REL.LN)Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â NVÂ (REN.AS) Share priceÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 511p Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â â‚¬9.0 Growth rating FY3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.9%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.8% Revenue CAGR FY1-3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.6%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.5% Target CAGR FY3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â […]

Aegis (AGS-LN): Q1 beat on Revs + good momentum for 2012, but already in the price

Q1 organic revenue growth of +8.1% was aheadÂ of ourÂ +7.5% forecast; albeit below the +12.0% advance in Q4 2012, but in part reflecting a -3ppts less favourable prior year comparative.Â By region, The Americas were the high point, increasing organic revenues by a class beating +20.2%, and this even before the $2.5bn GM account […]

WPP (WPP-LN): Q1 – positive spin and NNB, but organic revs of +4% only in line -HOLD

Q1 organic revenue growth of 4.0% was shy of our +4.4% forecast,Â albeit broadly in line with Q4’s +4.5% and WPP’s full year expectations of +4%.Â By region, the most noticeable change wasÂ from N. America where u/l growth of only +1.4% lagged its peersÂ (>+3.5%) and our estimate of +4.4%. W. Europe however at +2.5%Â was better than […]

Johnston Press (JPR-LN): FY11 results and refinancing – still a poor risk/return, at least for equity

Long overdue results out today which awaited the refinancing.Â Still looks like a bad mix of high risk andÂ possibly no reward (at least for equity holdersÂ – Avoid Â Johnston PressÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â (JPR-LN) Share priceÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.4p Growth rating FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.8% Revenue CAGR FY1-3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.4% Target CAGR FY3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.4% Target priceÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0p UpsideÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -81% Recommendation:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AVOID […]

Havas (HAV.PA): The pain from Spain – Q1 organic revenues miss at +3.3%

With its sizeable exposure to France andÂ Iberia, Q1 Revenues from Havas were never going to be thatÂ impressive, so the +3.3% organic revenue growth reported thisÂ afternoon should not have come as too much of a surprise. It wasÂ however shy of our +3.8% estimate, albeit net new business wins ofÂ â‚¬605m (>+50% YoY) were comfortably ahead of our […]

Reed Elsevier (REL LN/REN AE): Q1 IMS – more of same and still range bound

Reed’s Q1 IMS statement this morning was more of the same, which for Â Â Â those looking for excitement and change will have been a damp squib. Â Â Â Beyond the date, the release was bereft of numbers while the Â Â Â commentary essentially reiterated the trends in trading seen last Â Â Â year and expected to be maintained […]

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