Tag Archives for " US interest rates "

GDP driven rate increases in the US threatens to pummel an already challenged ECB QE policy

Equity markets were widely reported to have bounced on Friday after the solid May private sector job growth, albeit the accompanying rise in average hourly wage growth presages another rate rise by the Fed. With EU’s grip on its southern flank unravelling as friendly regimes in Spain and Italy are replaced however, the prospects of […]

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April US employment growth – Goldilocks

There seems to be a whole industry that has emerged to pore over the monthly US non-farm payroll numbers, but ultimately there are only two things of interest.  Are US corporate sacking enough employees to signal an impending recession, or employing so many and paying so much as to spook the Fed into tightening monetary […]

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Weaning consumers off the debt fix – maybe

Well that seemed short-lived. Perhaps the bounce in US equity markets on the February non-farms was just a one day wonder. The numbers however, weren’t too shabby for equity prices; the combination of a better than expected net job growth (including upward revision in the January guesstimate), but with a lower pace of average wage […]

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Interpublic Q2 disappoints – the canary in the coal mine?

From the -100bps drop in margins as organic sales growth slowed to only +0.4% for its Q2, IPG clearly didn’t see it coming, particularly following the solid performance in Q1 and the easier prior year comparatives it was cycling against for Q2. This lack of visibility and the uncertain impact of Fed monetary tightening on […]

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June US payrolls: Dead zone between Fed rate decisions

With the Fed having already edged up rates, June’s non-farm payrolls were going to have to be fairly spectacular to merit much attention as the ‘new’ Presidential grand tour moves to Europe and the G20.  The reported MoM net job additions of +222k looked solid enough, although strip out government adds of +35k and Private […]

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US Agency revenue growth plummets in Q3 – the canary in the mine

With less than a week to go and Trump edging ahead in some polls, albeit possibly still behind with regards electoral college votes, there’s going to be some sweaty palms in financial markets. A month ago, a Clinton victory may have seemed like a slam dunk and indeed one bookie (Paddy Power Betfair) was reported […]

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Another US non-farm payroll report and probably another deferral of the interest rate increase

The Fed it seems is off the hook for an interest rate increase for at least another month after the May non-farm payroll number. At +38k of net additions for the month (+25k for private sector) and with March and April figures also restated down by -59k, this is hardly the escape velocity of a […]

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