Today’s headlines may be celebrating the recovery in US jobs numbers in November (or at least the BIS’s ‘non-farm payroll’ guesstimate), but the reality may that we are just seeing the month-on-month distortions and knock-on effects of goosing the pre-election report for September which seem to have come out of the October figures. In that […]
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If you want to understand why the UK and Europe are in industrial decline there is no better chart than looking at the comparison of electricity prices by country. Is it any wonder the UK will soon no longer have a steel industry and Germany’s de-industrialisation is not far behind? Of course this competitive disadvantage […]
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Now that’s a surprise, an upbeat job growth (gu)estimate released by BIS, in its last update before the November elections. One might almost think they are trying to apply some lipstick to ‘Bidenomics’ to avoid the prospect of their own jobs being culled by that prospective DOGE grim reaper, Elon Musk. What may be less […]
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Can the USD be saved? Given the trajectory in Federal debt and deficits and apparent reluctance of the Uniparty to extract their snouts from the public trough that seems unlikely. Indeed, the assumption that inflation and debt monetisation will continue to define US Treasury policy is the defacto consensus opinion within financial markets and as […]
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After lies, damn lies and statistics, government ‘estimates’ such as the BIS’s monthly guesstimates for non-farm payrolls must rank as one of the more unreliable economic datasets, particularly in the run up to a quadrennial election year in the US. While also undermined by the debt fueled life support currently being administered by the incumbent […]
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“The new car market is no longer a market, unfortunately. It’s a state-imposed supply chain.”Robert Forrester, Chief Executive of Vertu Motors (UK) Unfortunately, this is a bit like noticing the iceberg after not only hitting it but realising that there aren’t enough life-rafts. At present, the car industry, including dealers such as Vertu, are reporting […]
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When the party stops The parallels between this cycle’s tech wunderkind, NVIDIA and yesteryear’s CISCO are not new, but worth repeating. As no group can out grow the market in perpetuity, the question always remain as to how far out will markets choose to reach out into the uncertain future to fix their horizon values. […]
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If ‘everyone’ believes interest rates are going back down, then why was US corporate bond issuance up +54% YoY in Q2 and with the high yield/junk end the most active? Seems like corporate treasurers were happy to unload some extra debt to “willing buyers at a fair market price” as Jeremy Irons character ‘John Tuld’ […]
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