Tag Archives for " seasonal adjustments "

December US Jobs data again fiddled – all eyes on Fed asset purchases

This is getting repetitive! Once again, the BLS has reported a monthly US jobs estimate figure that has been artificially depressed by changing the seasonal adjustments. It is almost as if someone out there either doesn’t want the US to seem to return to normality, or is concerned that signs of a tightening job market […]

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“A huge miss” says CNBC for Nov US jobs. Not really!

“A huge miss” was how CNBC’s Rick Santelli framed the November US jobs report, which revealed a ‘mere’ +235k net new private sector jobs were estimated by the BLS to have been added in November. Perhaps if Mr Santelli was to add back in the -175k decline in the seasonal adjustment that the BLS included […]

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US job growth stalls – a more reliable indicator than initial GDP

Well, well, once again the monthly non-farm payroll numbers provide the insight on the real state of the US economy. As with 2008, forget the official GDP numbers, or at least the initial ones. Forget also the the spin from those with an interest to persuade you everything is dandy, particularly those encouraging you to […]

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June US payrolls: Dead zone between Fed rate decisions

With the Fed having already edged up rates, June’s non-farm payrolls were going to have to be fairly spectacular to merit much attention as the ‘new’ Presidential grand tour moves to Europe and the G20.  The reported MoM net job additions of +222k looked solid enough, although strip out government adds of +35k and Private […]

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US jobs data for May – real trends now being allowed to show through

Is the BLS letting markets down gently that the US economy sucks and to kiss goodbye to a rate hike in June? Beyond the boost in February from renewed shale fracking and an exceptionally mild winter (on mining and construction job formation), US job growth into 2017 has been dire. I’m not referring to the […]

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April Non-farm payrolls: how to turn +76k jobs into +194k

This is feeling like Groundhog day. Another monthly jobs report by the Dept of Labor showing strong employment growth and triggering a wall of narrative from the markets proclaiming the next rate rise like the second coming, but another conclusion based on what Trump might describe as ‘fake news’.  Were those who predicted April MoM […]

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Adjustments to seasonal adjustments ‘add’ +101k jobs to December’s reported non-farm payroll figure

+144k net private sector job additions in December may a little below the trend, but with the previous two months revised up by +53k, this is probably where most of the headlines will stop, although Fed diehards may also point to the further rise in average hourly wages to a ten year high of +2.9% […]

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Seasonal adjustments salvage what would have been a dire October non-farm payroll number

Think +142k in October for Private sector jobs was poor? How would you feel about +37k then? Unlike in some countries, the US government would never stoop so low as bend some piece of economic data to gain a political advantage ahead of an election. The recovery in Q3 GDP to +2.9% (‘real’) trumpeted a […]

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