Tag Archives for " interest rates "

The monster from the ID – inflation

The 1956 movie Forbidden Planet was at its core a tale of hubris; that technology can overcome nature, whether for Krell or human. The analogy for  markets might be the conceit that the business cycle can be expunged without consequence and that one can borrow oneself out of debt.  Like the ‘monster from the Id’ […]

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Fog of war, or just fog?

Talk about fast markets. Blink and you might have missed WW3, as markets broadly return to where they were just 5 days ago. Good news however, may not be so positive for asset prices as waning emergencies mean fewer excuses by hard-up governments to keep printing their way out of deficits. And that means its […]

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US debt ceiling and the point of no return

What is the drifting gold price trying to tell us, because rising inflation and reckless government fiscal policies suggests impending currency debasement? Is this just another case of cognitive dissonance, that has accompanied COVID-19(84), or perhaps a temporary phenomena such as a big holder being forced to sell gold to raise USD to cover some […]

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Gold slumps – forming a ‘Macron bottom’?

So what’s up with the Gold price, which has tumbled by approx -5% in less than 48 hours?  While 10 year US treasury yields are barely changed, a falling gold price on a rising US dollar suggests the Fed may be forced kicking and screaming back onto a monetary tightening tack and this also seems […]

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War by other means – interest rates

War by other means?  Forget the South China sea, Syria or Korea.  If you haven’t noticed, the EU and China are locked in a high stakes game of chicken with the US over control of the World’s reserve currency, where the weapon of choice are interest rates. While much has been made of Trump’s attempts […]

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June US jobs data – surprisingly stable

Yes, its out; the US non-farm payrolls for June.  In between love island, the World Cup footie and what counts as financial porn (endless tit-for tat negotiations on tariffs and Brexit) you might have missed these. For those fretting about interest rate rises on an overheating employment market, I shouldn’t worry too much that it […]

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November US non-farm payrolls – a positive mix for equities

    On balance, November’s non-farm payroll numbers were as good as might have been hoped for, at least for equities. Whilst the progress of the tax reforms, which offer to drop Federal corporation tax rates by 15ppts (from 35% to only 20%) are clearly more relevant to both valuations and FCF assumptions, the improved […]

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US adds +205k jobs in July – normally a positive for the US dollar, but now?

The problem of communicating a softening macro outlook is that it lowers interest rate expectations which in turn is a buy signal for not just investors, but also recruiters.  So while the IMF cut its US GDP expectations for 2017 and 2018 by -20bps and -30bps respectively (both now to +2.1%) and currency markets have ‘drumfped’ […]

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