Economics Archives - GrowthRater

Category Archives for "Economics"

Treasury yields after debt ceiling ‘can-kicking’

Kabuki theatre remains alive and well in DC, and yet again, after all the histrionics from both sides of the aisle, the government will just keep spending money it doesn’t earn. While details have yet to be released, it seems the best result that Speaker McCarthy could secure was a budget cut of a measly […]

1 month T-Bill yield spreads expand by >160 bps in April – Signs of growing stress!

Whether it’s a flight to safety, a rush for USD collateral, or perhaps something else, the sudden divergence of the 1 month US T-Bill yields against the rising trend across all the longer maturities over the first three weeks of April doesn’t appear to bode well for markets. For the USD however, this may reflect […]

MMT – Safe and Effective?

An experimental theory adopted by a financially rewarded ruling oligarchy has always been difficult to fight against, so you won’t find many among those beholden to them that will be prepared to risk their careers by challenging the status quo. Until it is too late, that is! We therefore have entered a twilight zone where […]

March Jobs data – further softening, but not there yet!

While the real action is increasingly out in currency markets, the monthly guesstimates from the BLS provide an element of background mood music. For March, the picture remains one of gently easing rates of net job additions, but not yet in negative terratiory, but with real incomes failing to keep pace with inflation and indeed, […]

SVB bailout – failing the smell test!

So, no sooner than US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen implies no bailout for failed woke bank SVB “We’re not going to do that again,” what to we get, but an effective bailout for its uber wealthy depositors. The yet unanswered question however, remains whether this is an abandonment of the $250k FDIC insurance cap on deposits, […]

SVB failure – Moral Hazzard? Yellen Says No Bail Out

Will the US government again be bounced into bailouts following last week’s shock failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and subsequent seizure by the FDIC? The seemingly emphatic answer from ex US Fed chair and now US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is not. “We’re not going to do that again,” she is reported to have […]

A very odd recession!

Oh what a wonderful recession it is. Perhaps this is just the Sitzkreig before the real impacts are felt, but for now the stats from US employment data has yet to support the widespread news narrative of layoffs as the BLS reports US net private sector job growth approaching +400k in January. Maybe the fear […]

Will the Fed repeat the mistakes of the 1970’s by easing too early?

Natural gas and oil prices are off their peaks, so unsurprisingly so are reported rates of inflation. These in turn have been driving both bond and equity markets since the end of December in anticipation that central banks will ease off the monetary easing and thereby help avoid a potential recession this year. All this […]

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