Jobs data pain for impeachment obsessed Democrats
Without power, all that’s left is pointless political posturing. Markets therefore should be content to suck up some short term central bank profligacy if it can deliver more solid jobs and wages data, as we’ve seen in November’s non-farm payroll data. But then again, perhaps voters will want to take a risk on an increasingly […]
Continue reading‘Moar’ central planning call by new ECB chief
“Moar, Moar and Moar” seems to be the message from the ECB’s new president, Christine Lagarde in her first speech in that role. ‘Moar’ EU and EMU, ‘Moar’ fiscal loosening and therefore ‘Moar’ monetary indulgence that will be needed to pay for it. Perhaps more worrying however, was the central planning sub-text running through this […]
Continue readingUS jobs growth – not ‘Yuge’, but good enough
Net private sector job adds in October of +131k, with average wages stabilising to +2.6% annualised and +3.0% YoY is about as close to a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario’ as one could reasonably expect in the current trade war. While perhaps disappointing for those hoping for further Fed easing, the October jobs data is not without its […]
Continue readingUS porridge cooling, but still far from congealed
Another month of easing net job additions, but this time without the support of higher wage growth. Normally, such a report would be positive for markets, in that while not signalling recession, it is limp enough to keep the Fed dovish. As we approach 2020 however, the narrative around these monthly reports will become increasingly […]
Continue readingUS August jobs – porridge tepid and cooling
Markets weren’t expecting much from the August non-farm employment data and they didn’t disappoint. While average wage growth remained solidly above +3%, the underlying rate of private sector job growth slipped back to an anaemic +64k, with +15k of this coming from temporary help. Although comfortably ahead of the level of contraction that would signal […]
Continue readingWinning a trade war?
Good to see US & China agreeing to meet next month and hopefully they’ll start to settle their trade differences. Clearly Trump’s buckling, as China shows itself to be made of sterner stuff than to worry about lower pork imports from the US, despite half their own herd being wiped out by pig ebola. Kenyan […]
Continue readingUS GDP growth too strong in Q2?
Having bumped up the reported Q1 GDP growth numbers, the US administration now seems content to push a (modestly) slower growth narrative in order to support the current dovish Fed. As with the non-farm payroll seasonal adjustments, the GDP numbers are becoming increasingly unreliable as a true indicator of current economic growth and more a […]
Continue readingWeak job growth? Just fiddle the seasonal adjustments!
How can the Fed contemplate cutting rates when US Q1 GDP growth allegedly came in at over +3% and June saw a +224k MoM rise in employment? Perhaps because it knows these headline numbers are garbage and that the true underlying numbers are considerably worse than these. Having already commented on the fiddles used to […]
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