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Bond yields are rising, but more importantly normalising
Bond yields are rising, but perhaps more importantly, they are also normalising. Yields are rising, not because inflation rates are higher, but because of liquidity imbalances between borrowers and lenders. Where inflation fits into this process, is as a catalyst for returning the pricing of capital back to markets by removing the headroom of central […]
Continue readingThe power of one – WWG1WGA
No, I’m not referring to Qanon, but to the US Federal Reserve. Those central banks out there who thought they could get a free ride behind the Fed’s excessive monetary easing for a decade and a half, are now discovering that it came with a price, when the Fed started to pull back some of […]
Continue readingMarkets try to second guess the Fed, but perhaps all now irrelevant
That favourite pastime for markets has been to try and anticipate the Fed’s next move, which to be fair, has been the defining equity investment strategy for over a decade and a half. That however, presupposes that it remains in charge of events rather than now increasingly being at the mercy of them. So while […]
Continue readingHow many jobs added in July??
Perhaps Biden was correct and this is not a recession, as the US reports another increase in monthly private sector jobs in July. This time from June’s reported +404k net adds to almost half a million (+471k) in July, with annualised hourly wages meanwhile increasing by +5.6%. But hang on, if one strips out the […]
Continue readingPelosi’s stake in NVIDIA: Front running, or trying to close an eroding position?
Is anyone really that surprised that Nancy Pelosi’s husband (Paul) may have been front-running a $52bn CHIPS Plus bill that his wife was promoting a couple of days after the disclosure of his substantial investments in a potential beneficiary, NVIDIA? Unfortunately, such behaviour has become all too normalised in the US’s two-tiered judicial system. What […]
Continue readingPain at the pump? – blame the woke governments and not the oil majors!
In the UK, forecourt (pump) fuel prices are up +35% for both petrol and diesel (to 191p/199p respectively) from the last time the price of brent crude held above $120/bbl in Q1 2012. With the oil majors having all reported a strong increase in refining margins and downstream profitability, it must be tempting therefore suggest […]
Continue readingUS Federal Reserve – all gong no dinner!
Having flunked the very first month of its balance sheet unwind that was articulated in its 04 May ‘cunning plan’, the US Federal Reserve will find that the alternatives will prove no more palatable than those following the inept tenure of that chair up to 1978, Arthur Burns. Sure, the immediate response to Jerome Powell […]
Continue readingBe careful what you wish for!
“Is this deliberate?” is becoming a more familiar question as people slowly awaken. The answer of course remains an emphatic “Yes”, but it is the growing realisation of this agenda that is the important feature here. ‘They’ told you that money printing was good, that lockdowns work and are legal, as are mandating experimental gene […]
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