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US job growth stalls – a more reliable indicator than initial GDP
Well, well, once again the monthly non-farm payroll numbers provide the insight on the real state of the US economy. As with 2008, forget the official GDP numbers, or at least the initial ones. Forget also the the spin from those with an interest to persuade you everything is dandy, particularly those encouraging you to […]
Continue readingQ1 GDP – too good?
Better than expected Q1 GDP growth in both China and the US, may not be as positive for asset prices as the initial market reaction might suggest. Not only does it dispel some of the more ambitious hopes for additional fiscal and monetary stimulus, but it also serves to encourage each side to dig in […]
Continue readingInterpublic Q2 disappoints – the canary in the coal mine?
From the -100bps drop in margins as organic sales growth slowed to only +0.4% for its Q2, IPG clearly didn’t see it coming, particularly following the solid performance in Q1 and the easier prior year comparatives it was cycling against for Q2. This lack of visibility and the uncertain impact of Fed monetary tightening on […]
Continue readingYellen does virtuous – 5 years too late!
Confused? Well you should be be if you’ve been believing the usual output from the Federal Reserve. Contrary to the narrative of robust US economic growth and tightening labour markets requiring a normalisation of interest rates, things aren’t quite as rosy as Ms Yellen had been suggesting. Behind the increasingly absurd non-farm payroll data with […]
Continue readingUS Q3 GDP bounce exaggerated by soyabeans and deflator
Q3 US GDP was “better than expected” at +2.9% and according to Capital Economics, “confirms that the economic recovery has regained some of the momentum lost with last year” and ..”As such leaves the Fed firmly on track to raise interest rates in December” Well there you have it, the consensus view from economists! […]
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