Tag Archives for " recession "

When governments panic

The -713k contraction in US private sector employment in March was as dire as expected, but after the approx +6.4m increase in initial unemployment claims already reported in the two weeks up to the 28th March, this represents merely an hors d’oeuvre to what is coming down the pipe, With only limited effective testing (including […]

Continue reading

Yield curve danger signals

A flattening yield curve is often taken as a bad omen for prospective GPD growth, so according to this theory, surely the increasing divergence in rates across the maturity range is good? Hmm, well actually no, as yields also diverged, while falling in the 2-3 quarters immediately preceding the last two recessions. Perhaps horse and […]

Continue reading

WPP – slowing growth progressively reflected in rating, but are markets now also anticipating a recession?

Following Friday’s results from WPP, there are 3 areas of interest to me as a potential investor, and ones where the GrowthRater model and sensitivity analysis can offer insight on; at least on the latter two. 1. The immediate forecast 2. The longer term growth outlook and therefore rating 3. The volatility or valuation risk […]

Continue reading

Looking beyond central bank interference in equity valuations

Behind the incessant background noise of Yellen’s ‘will she won’t she raise rates’ discussion, the closing of the Q1 results season provides a good opportunity to take stock of the broader earnings and more importantly OpFCF yield basis on which equities are priced. Relative to expectations at the start of the year, there have been […]

Continue reading

Preparing for a possible recession from end 2016

  Economics is proving to be a little like a tube of toothpaste. Squeeze it one place and the toothpaste is just displaced elsewhere. When the Fed adopted what was already a failing Japanese experiment in QE in 2008/09, it provided a much needed liquidity fix for the credit crisis, but a dangerous temptation that […]

Continue reading