Category Archives for "GrowthRater"

When the party stops

When the party stops The parallels between this cycle’s tech wunderkind, NVIDIA and yesteryear’s CISCO are not new, but worth repeating. As no group can out grow the market in perpetuity, the question always remain as to how far out will markets choose to reach out into the uncertain future to fix their horizon values. […]

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Is the ECB being hung out to dry?

Has the US BIS not got the memo to support the easing narrative with softening economic data, or is the ECB and Euro being hung out to dry? For those hoodwinked by the manipulated GDP deflator assumptions (see below)  between Q4 2023 and Q1 this year, into over-estimating the slowdown in economic activity must have […]

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Soaring gold prices and gold miners

As markets lose faith in the Fed’s ability to manage its easing pivot, gold and silver prices are soaring to new records notwithstanding hardening long bond yields.  For investors wanting to participate in this trade, the choice seems to be between physical gold bullion, paper gold certificates or those mining the stuff. Those with a […]

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Japanese MMT – the last domino to fall

Rising wage settlements and the falling Yen may have finally forced the Bank of Japan to reverse its negative interest rate policy, if recent media leaks ahead of its March meeting are to be believed. Behind this however, is the inexorable pressure to fund structural deficit spending when previous debt monetisations are cascading through into […]

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More misdirection from US jobs data

Once again it is amusing to see the monthly US non-farm payroll statistics get used to provide cover for the usual misdirection by the US Fed/Govt.  The approved message markets are meant to take from the BIS guesstimate of an improving trend in private sector net job additions in September (of almost +260k MoM), is […]

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Rising US federal debt and maturites pose uncomfortable truths for ‘no/soft’ landing assumptions

As of the 1st September, US Federal debt was estimated to be nudging $32.6 trillion, having been increasing by approx +$1.4 trillion per quarter following the abandonment of the debt ceiling and the last vestiges of Congressional constraint.  Annually, that represents almost $7tn of new debt, which together with a further $7.5tn of existing debt […]

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NVIDIA – an anatomy of a valuation

Since the start of the year, NVIDIA’s stock price has trebled, while the consensus EBITDA has ‘merely’ doubled, even reaching out to FY25.  While inevitably reflecting a medium term multiple expansion to bridge that gap, the actual mechanism is not some sort of opaque PEG type ratio, but the systematic relationship between growth and the […]

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