Tag Archives for " ecb "

Gold returns

Was it the flip-flopping Federal reserve or Draghi’s increasingly desperate attempts to reflate the ECB debt balloon, but with Iran scare stories it has done wonders for the gold price. While forthcoming Q2 results will be pretty drab for the industry, with H1 average prices broadly flat YoY, the second half is on track for […]

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ECB hopium

“substantial monetary policy stimulus remains essential to ensure the continued build-up of domestic price pressures over the medium term.” So says Sig Draghi in yesterday’s release of the ECB’s 2018 annual report and so much for any doubt that the ending of the asset purchase programme (AAP) in December would actually herald a return to […]

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1848?

BTFD or STFR depends on what game you think is really being played out there in markets. The recent bounce in equity prices on the apparent reversal in the Fed’s QT narrative together with an improving narrative on Chinese tariffs and now hopes for a reversal in Brexit, notwithstanding the resounding defeat of Theresa May’s […]

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War by other means – interest rates

War by other means?  Forget the South China sea, Syria or Korea.  If you haven’t noticed, the EU and China are locked in a high stakes game of chicken with the US over control of the World’s reserve currency, where the weapon of choice are interest rates. While much has been made of Trump’s attempts […]

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Are equities expensive?

The spike in US bond yields has implications for equities, but perhaps not as directly as one might imagine. Yes, long bond yields and particularly TIPS, provide an effective proxy for a risk-free return and therefore the essential anchor for valuing other asset classes, but only from a relative rather than absolute perspective.  It may […]

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GDP driven rate increases in the US threatens to pummel an already challenged ECB QE policy

Equity markets were widely reported to have bounced on Friday after the solid May private sector job growth, albeit the accompanying rise in average hourly wage growth presages another rate rise by the Fed. With EU’s grip on its southern flank unravelling as friendly regimes in Spain and Italy are replaced however, the prospects of […]

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Weaning consumers off the debt fix – maybe

Well that seemed short-lived. Perhaps the bounce in US equity markets on the February non-farms was just a one day wonder. The numbers however, weren’t too shabby for equity prices; the combination of a better than expected net job growth (including upward revision in the January guesstimate), but with a lower pace of average wage […]

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