Tag Archives for " US Non farm payrolls "

When governments panic

The -713k contraction in US private sector employment in March was as dire as expected, but after the approx +6.4m increase in initial unemployment claims already reported in the two weeks up to the 28th March, this represents merely an hors d’oeuvre to what is coming down the pipe, With only limited effective testing (including […]

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US jobs growth – not ‘Yuge’, but good enough

Net private sector job adds in October of +131k, with average wages stabilising to +2.6% annualised and +3.0% YoY is about as close to a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario’ as one could reasonably expect in the current trade war. While perhaps disappointing for those hoping for further Fed easing, the October jobs data is not without its […]

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US porridge cooling, but still far from congealed

Another month of easing net job additions, but this time without the support of higher wage growth. Normally, such a report would be positive for markets, in that while not signalling recession, it is limp enough to keep the Fed dovish. As we approach 2020 however, the narrative around these monthly reports will become increasingly […]

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US job growth stalls – a more reliable indicator than initial GDP

Well, well, once again the monthly non-farm payroll numbers provide the insight on the real state of the US economy. As with 2008, forget the official GDP numbers, or at least the initial ones. Forget also the the spin from those with an interest to persuade you everything is dandy, particularly those encouraging you to […]

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Weaning consumers off the debt fix – maybe

Well that seemed short-lived. Perhaps the bounce in US equity markets on the February non-farms was just a one day wonder. The numbers however, weren’t too shabby for equity prices; the combination of a better than expected net job growth (including upward revision in the January guesstimate), but with a lower pace of average wage […]

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November US non-farm payrolls – a positive mix for equities

    On balance, November’s non-farm payroll numbers were as good as might have been hoped for, at least for equities. Whilst the progress of the tax reforms, which offer to drop Federal corporation tax rates by 15ppts (from 35% to only 20%) are clearly more relevant to both valuations and FCF assumptions, the improved […]

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