Federal Reserve Archives

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Fog of war, or just fog?

Talk about fast markets. Blink and you might have missed WW3, as markets broadly return to where they were just 5 days ago. Good news however, may not be so positive for asset prices as waning emergencies mean fewer excuses by hard-up governments to keep printing their way out of deficits. And that means its […]

September jobs report – no comfort here for more money printing!

Another government statistic and another opportunity it seems to spin it to support a corrupt narrative. This time, it is the monthly US jobs data for September, where the headline jobs growth of ‘only’ 194,000 is touted as evidence of weak economic activity and ergo an argument for postponing any discussion of tapering by the […]

Gold slumps – forming a ‘Macron bottom’?

So what’s up with the Gold price, which has tumbled by approx -5% in less than 48 hours? While 10 year US treasury yields are barely changed, a falling gold price on a rising US dollar suggests the Fed may be forced kicking and screaming back onto a monetary tightening tack and this also seems […]

Battle for the Fed narrative

Oh it’s such fun to see the Fed being played, if not by the government, then by the banks! Now however, both interests are aligned in attempting to persuade Fed Chairman Powell to keep the monetary punch bowl well filled, or risk yet another market ‘hissy-fit’. Hence the management of expectations for an entirely unreasonable […]

Good news now good news?

So is Good news now good for asset prices? For the last decade and particularly the last year however, its been more a case of multiple expansion driven by central bank/Govt money printing rather than rising returns that have been responsible for this asset inflation, so why would another month of robust growth in US […]

Rising implied inflation heralds the end of the MMT party

“By My word and for the good of the state, The bearer has done what has been done.” Has WuFlu returned us to a fictional 17th century where any excess is permissible “for the good of the state”, but where accountability is as nebulous as the infamous ‘Carte Banche’? Looking at the unmitigated project fear […]

US jobs growth – not ‘Yuge’, but good enough

Net private sector job adds in October of +131k, with average wages stabilising to +2.6% annualised and +3.0% YoY is about as close to a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario’ as one could reasonably expect in the current trade war. While perhaps disappointing for those hoping for further Fed easing, the October jobs data is not without its […]

US August jobs – porridge tepid and cooling

Markets weren’t expecting much from the August non-farm employment data and they didn’t disappoint. While average wage growth remained solidly above +3%, the underlying rate of private sector job growth slipped back to an anaemic +64k, with +15k of this coming from temporary help. Although comfortably ahead of the level of contraction that would signal […]

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