Tag Archives for " Federal Reserve "

ECB hopium

“substantial monetary policy stimulus remains essential to ensure the continued build-up of domestic price pressures over the medium term.” So says Sig Draghi in yesterday’s release of the ECB’s 2018 annual report and so much for any doubt that the ending of the asset purchase programme (AAP) in December would actually herald a return to […]

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Market algos chasing Central Bank intervention, rather than anticipating it

Markets are going with the ‘flow’, because that’s the only way to trade these algo-driven markets.   The new Fed chairman flip-flops from hawk to dove while the ECB hint at following suit (ahead of its May parliamentary elections) and the Chinese unleash another Tsumani of credit. Equity valuations meanwhile recoup the Q4 lost ground, notwithstanding […]

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Engineering a ‘Santa Rally’ in oil, but what then?

If the price of continued US support after the Khashoggi murder was the lower oil price, then it must rank as one of the  most expensive assassinations of  journalist in history, with Saudi Arabia’s gross oil production revenues down almost $2bn per week. The attempt to resurrect his political reputation at the G20 meeting was […]

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War by other means – interest rates

War by other means?  Forget the South China sea, Syria or Korea.  If you haven’t noticed, the EU and China are locked in a high stakes game of chicken with the US over control of the World’s reserve currency, where the weapon of choice are interest rates. While much has been made of Trump’s attempts […]

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US adds +205k jobs in July – normally a positive for the US dollar, but now?

The problem of communicating a softening macro outlook is that it lowers interest rate expectations which in turn is a buy signal for not just investors, but also recruiters.  So while the IMF cut its US GDP expectations for 2017 and 2018 by -20bps and -30bps respectively (both now to +2.1%) and currency markets have ‘drumfped’ […]

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Yellen does virtuous – 5 years too late!

Confused?  Well you should be be if you’ve been believing the usual output from the Federal Reserve. Contrary to the narrative of robust US economic growth and tightening labour markets requiring a normalisation of interest rates, things aren’t quite as rosy as Ms Yellen had been suggesting.  Behind the increasingly absurd non-farm payroll data with […]

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US jobs data for May – real trends now being allowed to show through

Is the BLS letting markets down gently that the US economy sucks and to kiss goodbye to a rate hike in June? Beyond the boost in February from renewed shale fracking and an exceptionally mild winter (on mining and construction job formation), US job growth into 2017 has been dire. I’m not referring to the […]

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Now you’ve been distracted, here’s the real US monthly job growth numbers

Gosh, with so much excitement going on in the world between the bombs, missile strikes and false flags it was easy to miss last week’s US non-farm payroll release for March. Not that one would have missed much. Having delivered its much anticipated second rate increase in the current tightening cycle, the Fed no longer […]

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