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Another non-farm payroll and another missed opportunity to normalise rates

“Silence”. That is what I hear after yesterday’s March US non-farm payroll figures. Even a few months ago, these data points, while flawed were eagerly awaited as harbingers of revisions in US Fed monetary policy. Not any more. After February’s decision to hold rates in what looks like a clumsy attempt to goose oil prices […]

Yellen chickens out – again!

So much for the Yellen’s promise to be “data dependent” in its interest rate policy! With core inflation above the Fed’s forecast range, unemployment well within its longer term target range and private sector job and average wage growth offering no rational support for maintaining the near zero interest rate environment, Yellen’s decision to hold […]

Preparing for a possible recession from end 2016

Economics is proving to be a little like a tube of toothpaste. Squeeze it one place and the toothpaste is just displaced elsewhere. When the Fed adopted what was already a failing Japanese experiment in QE in 2008/09, it provided a much needed liquidity fix for the credit crisis, but a dangerous temptation that […]

US dollar rise has further to go before the Fed will panic

After the equity market drubbing into the first week of 2016, attention was back on the Fed and whether an expected weak set of employment data for December might provide some political cover to forestall the next upward revision in interest rates possibly due in March. If the Fed holds rates however, it won’t be […]

“It sure is a hell of a lot easier just being first” (John Tuld – Margin Call)

Has Yellen seen the movie Margin Call, I wonder? In it, Jeremy Iron’s classic Wall Street boss (John Tuld) referred to 3 ways of making a living: be first, be smarter, or cheat. Of course in financial markets these are not mutually exclusive options where Governments habitually use their central banks to operate their own […]

“It sure is a hell of a lot easier just being first” (John Tuld – Margin Call)

//youtu.be/ag14Ao_xO4c Has Yellen seen the movie Margin Call, I wonder? In it, Jeremy Iron’s classic Wall Street boss (John Tuld) referred to 3 ways of making a living: be first, be smarter, or cheat. Of course in financial markets these are not mutually exclusive options where Governments habitually use their central banks to operate […]

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