Is the ECB being hung out to dry?

Has the US BIS not got the memo to support the easing narrative with softening economic data, or is the ECB and Euro being hung out to dry? For those hoodwinked by the manipulated GDP deflator assumptions (see below)  between Q4 2023 and Q1 this year, into over-estimating the slowdown in economic activity must have […]

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Soaring gold prices and gold miners

As markets lose faith in the Fed’s ability to manage its easing pivot, gold and silver prices are soaring to new records notwithstanding hardening long bond yields.  For investors wanting to participate in this trade, the choice seems to be between physical gold bullion, paper gold certificates or those mining the stuff. Those with a […]

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The mighty US dollar – ruling over the ashes

At times like this it is difficult to comprehend whether there are any adults left at the helm in the US.  Jerome Powell’s attempts to ape his failed predecessor, Arthur Burns, is unraveling as fast as gold prices and bond yields are rising in the face of a so-called Republican Congress seemingly incapable of reining […]

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“Ukraine will become a member of NATO” – another gem from Blinken!

“All warfare is based on deception”, albeit presumably Sun Tzu expected those following this advice to be able to have a modicum of proficiency in misdirecting their opponents. So what are we to make of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s promise today that “Ukraine will become a member of NATO”, knowing full well this […]

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Japanese MMT – the last domino to fall

Rising wage settlements and the falling Yen may have finally forced the Bank of Japan to reverse its negative interest rate policy, if recent media leaks ahead of its March meeting are to be believed. Behind this however, is the inexorable pressure to fund structural deficit spending when previous debt monetisations are cascading through into […]

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Deja Vu – but have the lessons been learned?

“Follow the Fed” has been a winning investment strategy, but that ought to be confined to what the central bank is actually doing rather than the narrative that it is trying to communicate.  Since early December, that narrative has been plainly on offer, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalling a series of interest rate reductions […]

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October US payrolls – a recession for many

Once again we have a US government department (Bureau of Labor Statistics – BLS) conveniently releasing some economic guesstimates that are supportive of the official narrative and the Fed’s decision to again hold interest rates unchanged.  According to this,  inflationary pressures from the jobs market are abating as wage growth tumbles to a sub-inflationary +2.5%, […]

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United States can “certainly” afford to support wars on two fronts – Yellen

A runaway deficit already at around $2tn pa and rising interest rates as the US government is forced to compete for funds to pay for this and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wants us to believe her administration can afford another war.  For those bond funds already burned from believing her claims in 2021 that […]

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