US August jobs – porridge tepid and cooling

Markets weren’t expecting much from the August non-farm employment data and they didn’t disappoint. While average wage growth remained solidly above +3%, the underlying rate of private sector job growth slipped back to an anaemic +64k, with +15k of this coming from temporary help. Although comfortably ahead of the level of contraction that would signal […]

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The cone of uncertainty

Yes, its ‘cone of uncertainty’ time again for hurricane watchers as Dorian ends up over 350 miles from where it was projected to be 5 days ago. Given that the 5 day margin of error on these forecasts appears to only around plus-or-minus 125 miles, this must temper President Trump’s relief that the current forecasts […]

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US GDP growth too strong in Q2?

Having bumped up the reported Q1 GDP growth numbers, the US administration now seems content to push a (modestly) slower growth narrative in order to support the current dovish Fed. As with the non-farm payroll seasonal adjustments, the GDP numbers are becoming increasingly unreliable as a true indicator of current economic growth and more a […]

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