Command economics, or just fantasy financing?

Are the lockdowns really an attempt to spare over-whelming health services, or an excuse to bail out all those bad loans sitting on bank balance sheets since 2008? Either way, as IFR data emerges and debt liabilities spiral out of control, the justification and ability to sustain these policies are crumbling. Without central bank support […]

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All that Glitters

In December 2009 as the gold price was inexorably rising in the face of central bank currency debasement, called QE, we started to get scare stories about fake gold. A decade later and the Fed is back to its old tricks again and investors are rushing into the yellow stuff to preserve capital and once […]

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More fake statistics!

In war, the first casualty is often the truth. In the current pandemic and polarised political environment, this seems to be doubly so. Pre-existing conditions might be what kills you with COVID-19, but it is the pre-existing political bias and goal-seeking that is more alarming. Don’t expect the data to lead the narrative. Want Biden […]

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“Following the science” – Really?

A catchy mantra perhaps to help insulate Governments from responsibility, but is this really a credible excuse for the biggest self-inflicted collapse in economic activity and personal liberty since WW2? Relying on the output of a “scientific model” may sound sensible, but when that model is based on incomplete, if not flawed data, then the […]

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When governments panic

The -713k contraction in US private sector employment in March was as dire as expected, but after the approx +6.4m increase in initial unemployment claims already reported in the two weeks up to the 28th March, this represents merely an hors d’oeuvre to what is coming down the pipe, With only limited effective testing (including […]

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The shape of things to come?

This QuickTake by Bloomberg video drive-thru of Wuhan paints an eeerily post-apocalyptic image that might be straight out of Twelve Monkeys or The Omega Man. My first reaction was to avoid any stock that needs to bring people together (restaurants, cinemas, airlines, event organisers, hotels etc) as the public reaction to this coronavirus is clearly […]

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