Good to see US & China agreeing to meet next month and hopefully they’ll start to settle their trade differences. Clearly Trump’s buckling, as China shows itself to be made of sterner stuff than to worry about lower pork imports from the US, despite half their own herd being wiped out by pig ebola. Kenyan […]
Continue reading
Will Corbyn now hold us all hostage with the fixed term Parliament Act? This is all looking a bit like a re-run of the ‘Long Parliament’. “On 1 December 1648 [4 September 2019] , the House voted 129 to 83 to continue negotiations with Charles [the EU] for reforming the government on terms they had […]
Continue reading
Yes, its ‘cone of uncertainty’ time again for hurricane watchers as Dorian ends up over 350 miles from where it was projected to be 5 days ago. Given that the 5 day margin of error on these forecasts appears to only around plus-or-minus 125 miles, this must temper President Trump’s relief that the current forecasts […]
Continue reading
“Wall St. analyst says WWE is his top pick, expects shares to climb 49%“. Gosh, perhaps the 7 senior management insiders that sold approx $23m in stock a week BEFORE the Q2 results announcement that suggested the FY19 guidance might be MISSED, may want to buy their stock back now. LoL! Check out the SEC […]
Continue reading
When in doubt, it seems we all try and cling on to our normalcy bias. While ITV (itv_l) might seem an odd example of markets use of a ‘mean reversion’ to provide a valuation anchor point, this very much depends on the metric used and the perspective sought. Use a fixed metric such as a […]
Continue reading
Having bumped up the reported Q1 GDP growth numbers, the US administration now seems content to push a (modestly) slower growth narrative in order to support the current dovish Fed. As with the non-farm payroll seasonal adjustments, the GDP numbers are becoming increasingly unreliable as a true indicator of current economic growth and more a […]
Continue reading
It says a lot for either the weak outlook for global GDP growth or the limited threat posed by the Iranians, that a series of attacks and seizures of oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, a conduit for around 20% of the world’s oil needs, as had no appreciable impact on crude oil prices. […]
Continue reading
How can the Fed contemplate cutting rates when US Q1 GDP growth allegedly came in at over +3% and June saw a +224k MoM rise in employment? Perhaps because it knows these headline numbers are garbage and that the true underlying numbers are considerably worse than these. Having already commented on the fiddles used to […]
Continue reading