Airlines – what happens when ROIC looks too good

So much for IATA’s prediction last year of “Normal profits are becoming normal for airlines”, or the thesis that airlines would again be able to pass on higher fuel prices to customers by charging higher fares. Someone must have forgotten to tell Ryanair, as they cut a further 10 percentage points from their current year earnings […]

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1848?

BTFD or STFR depends on what game you think is really being played out there in markets. The recent bounce in equity prices on the apparent reversal in the Fed’s QT narrative together with an improving narrative on Chinese tariffs and now hopes for a reversal in Brexit, notwithstanding the resounding defeat of Theresa May’s […]

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Google CEO dumps more stock – Something he’d like to share with us?

Is there something else, Google’s CEO, Sundar Pichai would like to share with us? While in the news recently defending the integrity of Google’s services before the House Judiciary Committee, perhaps less well known has been his recent director stock sales, which this quarter alone (up to 6th Dec) have already amounted to -50k Alphabet shares, to […]

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Thomas Cook Group – analysis, or time for catastrophe modelling?

The recent gyrations in the Thomas Cook share price (a +50% surge yesterday and -13% correction today), might have you reaching for your catastrophe models, but its volatility after its latest guidance cut ought not to be that surprising. Combine a volatile top line with low margins, substantial financial leverage and a low rate of […]

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Engineering a ‘Santa Rally’ in oil, but what then?

If the price of continued US support after the Khashoggi murder was the lower oil price, then it must rank as one of the  most expensive assassinations of  journalist in history, with Saudi Arabia’s gross oil production revenues down almost $2bn per week. The attempt to resurrect his political reputation at the G20 meeting was […]

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War by other means – interest rates

War by other means?  Forget the South China sea, Syria or Korea.  If you haven’t noticed, the EU and China are locked in a high stakes game of chicken with the US over control of the World’s reserve currency, where the weapon of choice are interest rates. While much has been made of Trump’s attempts […]

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