FCA-Renault merger crash tested by dummies

With the auto industry facing some existential challenges, one might have thought a low margin operator and its shareholders would have seized at the opportunity for a highly synergistic merger. Unfortunately, when one of those shareholders is the French Government, then the normal commercial rules don’t seem to apply. So after some foot-dragging by Macron […]

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Zero bond yields are not without a cost. Mind the Gap!

Interesting article yesterday on Bloomberg reporting that billionaire Stan Druckenmiller has dumped equities in favour of US treasuries, where he sees 10 year yields dropping to zero over the next 18 months. The two big assumptions however, is that Trump won’t get re-elected in 2020 and that US yields will converge down to those in […]

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Yield curve danger signals

A flattening yield curve is often taken as a bad omen for prospective GPD growth, so according to this theory, surely the increasing divergence in rates across the maturity range is good? Hmm, well actually no, as yields also diverged, while falling in the 2-3 quarters immediately preceding the last two recessions. Perhaps horse and […]

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(Earnings) Klingons on the starboard bow

Why are markets perennial optimists? Perhaps it’s a reflection of the commercial bias favouring a positive investment recommendation by market participants to portray a glass as half full rather than half empty.  Fold in expectations of a central bank put to bail out markets with endless liquidity fixes when things get sticky and it’s easy […]

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M&A mantra: When in a hole, keep digging!

M&A in the Marketing Services sector is a bit like archeology; if you find yourself in a hole, keep digging! This is how companies such as Publicis, can propose to invest a further $4bn on another digital marketing acquisition, notwithstanding presiding over an eroding organic top line and sub market ROIC, notwithstanding splashing out over […]

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