Category Archives for "Valuation"

More misdirection from US jobs data

Once again it is amusing to see the monthly US non-farm payroll statistics get used to provide cover for the usual misdirection by the US Fed/Govt.  The approved message markets are meant to take from the BIS guesstimate of an improving trend in private sector net job additions in September (of almost +260k MoM), is […]

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NVIDIA – an anatomy of a valuation

Since the start of the year, NVIDIA’s stock price has trebled, while the consensus EBITDA has ‘merely’ doubled, even reaching out to FY25.  While inevitably reflecting a medium term multiple expansion to bridge that gap, the actual mechanism is not some sort of opaque PEG type ratio, but the systematic relationship between growth and the […]

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Asset allocation for 2023 – first pick your macro scenario

Go into a car salesroom or estate agent (realtor) and ask if it’s a good time to buy and I think we all know what the answer would be. Why then should we be surprised at a similar response from those pushing ‘stawks’ and bonds for a living? Here, the year-end prognostications for 2023 from […]

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The monster from the ID – inflation

The 1956 movie Forbidden Planet was at its core a tale of hubris; that technology can overcome nature, whether for Krell or human. The analogy for  markets might be the conceit that the business cycle can be expunged without consequence and that one can borrow oneself out of debt.  Like the ‘monster from the Id’ […]

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Rising Bond Yields & a Flattening Curve

A flattening yield curve is often seen as an ominous portend of economic doom, while a forced increase in interest rates can often ensure its delivery.  This convergence however, is the conclusion of a tale that has been in the making for a couple of decades, but one where the inflationary consequences now threaten to […]

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Hobson’s Choice – Rising rates or a currency crisis

Just how much red pilling can a market take?  How about the realisation that the economic recovery following the 2008 financial crash as been an illusion based on monetary easing that was conducted in a way to disguise the inflationary consequences, overstate economic growth while forcing investors up the risk curve, where they will be […]

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Singapore – another canary!

Is it a coincidence that Singapore, like Israel before it, is currently experiencing a surge in COVID deaths at almost exactly six months after the start of its vaccination programme?  Both countries were early adopters of a mass vaccination strategy to an approx 80% coverage, with Israel kicking off in earnest around the start of […]

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A Reserves based Valuation for Gold Miners

Resources companies can often present a quandary for traditional valuation techniques. Is a hole in the ground a potential asset, or the guys digging it worth an opportunity premium in case they find more gold?  They are of course a bit of both, but the long lead times from sinking the capital to delivering the […]

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