Category Archives for "Valuation"

The monster from the ID – inflation

The 1956 movie Forbidden Planet was at its core a tale of hubris; that technology can overcome nature, whether for Krell or human. The analogy for  markets might be the conceit that the business cycle can be expunged without consequence and that one can borrow oneself out of debt.  Like the ‘monster from the Id’ […]

Continue reading

Rising Bond Yields & a Flattening Curve

A flattening yield curve is often seen as an ominous portend of economic doom, while a forced increase in interest rates can often ensure its delivery.  This convergence however, is the conclusion of a tale that has been in the making for a couple of decades, but one where the inflationary consequences now threaten to […]

Continue reading

Hobson’s Choice – Rising rates or a currency crisis

Just how much red pilling can a market take?  How about the realisation that the economic recovery following the 2008 financial crash as been an illusion based on monetary easing that was conducted in a way to disguise the inflationary consequences, overstate economic growth while forcing investors up the risk curve, where they will be […]

Continue reading

Singapore – another canary!

Is it a coincidence that Singapore, like Israel before it, is currently experiencing a surge in COVID deaths at almost exactly six months after the start of its vaccination programme?  Both countries were early adopters of a mass vaccination strategy to an approx 80% coverage, with Israel kicking off in earnest around the start of […]

Continue reading

A Reserves based Valuation for Gold Miners

Resources companies can often present a quandary for traditional valuation techniques. Is a hole in the ground a potential asset, or the guys digging it worth an opportunity premium in case they find more gold?  They are of course a bit of both, but the long lead times from sinking the capital to delivering the […]

Continue reading

Lab-leak hypothesis – and the next shoe to drop?

Investing can sometimes feel like quantum physics, where there is no reality, but just a probability of outcomes.  While valuing a potentially miss-priced asset on an existing consensus perception of reality is one challenge, this is a mere entree to the broader problem that the future is unlikely to pan out as per the current […]

Continue reading

The cone of uncertainty

Yes, its ‘cone of uncertainty’ time again for hurricane watchers as Dorian ends up over 350 miles from where it was projected to be 5 days ago. Given that the 5 day margin of error on these forecasts appears to only around plus-or-minus 125 miles, this must temper President Trump’s relief that the current forecasts […]

Continue reading
1 2 3 10