Tag Archives for " valuation "

AT&T Time Warner offer – OK with judge, but now less so for TWX shareholders

Time Warner shareholders may feel a sense of relief that the AT&T bid is now clear to proceed, but the harsh reality is that they are being screwed.  Time value and a declining performance and share price of AT&T has seriously eroded the original offer premium to … ZERO. Indeed, it could be strongly argued […]

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Ryanair – when the music stops

Many companies resemble sharks. Not just for their need to keep eating new prey to grow, but to keep growing to stay afloat. The capital intensive airlines are perhaps the most glaring example of this in action, particularly given the additional scale advantage that can be secured. The problem for investors however, is being able […]

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Are equity markets expensive?

This is a regular question posed by investors and market commentators, but in many ways is also the most meaningless. This is because the relative merits of equities as an asset class owes more to the ebb and flow of liquidity to goose demand, rather than some theoretical notion of a ‘correct’ valuation that should […]

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How ‘free’ is your ‘free cash flow’?

Back in January, Alphabet decided to take the high ground in its reporting by including Stock Based Compensation (SBC) within its adjusted ‘non-Gaap’ earnings’. As a bit of an old chestnut for analysts and portfolio managers and something the IASB has mandated to be included in IFRS reporting since 2005, it was perhaps no surprise […]

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WPP – slowing growth progressively reflected in rating, but are markets now also anticipating a recession?

Following Friday’s results from WPP, there are 3 areas of interest to me as a potential investor, and ones where the GrowthRater model and sensitivity analysis can offer insight on; at least on the latter two. 1. The immediate forecast 2. The longer term growth outlook and therefore rating 3. The volatility or valuation risk […]

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Gartner Inc – Consensus forecasts in straight lines are usually wrong

Nature may abhor a straight line, but analyst forecasts don’t seem to, even when estimating revenues for a business with an historic margin of error on revenues of over +/-4ppts.  I take a look at Gartner as consensus forecasts predict what its never achieved before, a straight run of revenue growth and into a slowing […]

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Market crash? – depends who blinks first

Although the GrowthRater is a relative engine to establish stock valuation and risk relative to to broader market equity returns, that doesn’t mean we aren’t keenly aware of what these are, or might become, it is just that we do not impose our view on whether this is good or bad on the investment process. […]

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Is it a surprise that most investors lose money when they are relying on a flawed metric?

Confused? Don’t worry, because you’re supposed to be.  That way you can be sold a metric that has been anointed as the approved currency by which you are meant to determine the value of the goods or services being transacted.  The fact that this currency may be flawed is fairly immaterial because it’s good for […]

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