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Correlation <> causation, but sometimes maybe!
When I was but a nipper, a wise old Chairman of a large and successful financial information business gave me a valuable piece of advice:Â That mediators extract better margins in poor information environments and when price discovery is obscured. As his business, amongst others, picked off and commoditised market after market with real-time pricing, […]
Continue readingCheap new cash = property boom. Nothing has changed in 2,000 years!
He “made money so plentiful, that interest fell and the price of land rose considerably, And afterwards, as often as large sums of money came into his possession by means of confiscations, he would lend it free of interest, for a fixed term, to such as could give security for the double of what was […]
Continue readingWelcome to the UK recovery!
Still faced with a structural deleveraging in personal and public debt, the policy response by those who ought to know better remains the same – juice the system and hope growth miraculously appears. That’s right, the same strategy as adopted for Greece, Portugal, Spain, France etc, etc, & etc. After the >+10% MoM rise in […]
Continue readingWill you be see the collapse in the property market coming?
Will you be see the collapse in the property market coming? There is an entire industry of vested interests out there to ensure that you don’t. You have a Government whose declared purpose is to juice demand and support funding with its various schemes to encourage the consumer to put themselves further into hock at […]
Continue readingThe need to look beyond the quarterly agencies reports
My iPhone weather App is like a set of Agency results. It gives me a largely coincidental view of the weather if I don’t want to look out of the window, but is pretty useless as a meaningful forecasting tool. With two of the big four agencies reporting, are we much the wiser? Omnicom edged […]
Continue reading“Trust us, we know what we’re doingâ€
Am I missing something here? No sooner than central bankers on both sides of the pond had impressed upon us the importance of managing expectations and newsflow for fickle markets, than Bernanke throws us a very curved ball. Was this the same person that has for months been sending out signals of tapering QE, that […]
Continue readingChilly without Carney or just burn baby burn?
Before we all get bogged down in the Q2 results season which is beginning to gather pace I think it is good to remind ourselves of one part of the financial burden that is to crush us if interest rates rise to more normalised levels – that is the scale of Govt, household and non-financial […]
Continue readingMore muppets needed
Benanke does some back-peddling on tapering and we’re back to the ‘good’ times again. More easing of course spells a weaker dollar, which after its recent surge, was ripe for some profit taking. On the other side of this trade, Â equities and commodities rose, including at last gold. Â – nice to see life is now […]
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