Agency Q1 revenue preview & valuation perspective

Publicis (PUB FR): Q1 revenues OK, but trajectory softening into Q2

    Publicis Q1 revenues and organic growth of +4.1% was a same beat on our +3.1% estimate, although was behind Omnicom’s recently reported +5.2% and the warning tucked away in Publicis’s outlook section that it expects a lower rate of organic growth in Q2 will probably see a negative reaction on the shares this […]

DMGT Plc (DMGT LN): Window of opportunity. Use it or lose it

  DMGT has become an increasingly interesting investment proposition, but the opportunity may not persist for too long.  On one side, there is a strengthening cyclical and structural play in both B2B and B2C.  Obscuring this however is a short term negative technical position with the shares as they approach the 6 June, when the shares […]

UBM (UBM LN): Take profits

Valuation recovery running ahead of trading momentum Stock: UBM Plc (UBM LN) Price: 634p Target: 595p Upside: -6% Recommendation: Trading Sell Investment summary UBM was or top pick in our “Telecom & Media Dividend Watch” review at the beginning of the year (4 Jan 2012) and after a +29% share price appreciation since then (+24% […]

France Telecom (FTE-FR): Growth rater update post FY11 results – still a value trap

France Telecom (FTE-FR) Share Price: €11.6 Target Price: €9.9 Upside: -15% Recommendation: SELL EVENT: FY11 results released today. Revenues were in line with consensus at €45.3bn (-1.6% underlying; -1.7% in Q4), but with near misses for EBIT (€7.9bn vs €8.3bn consensus) and EPS (€1.46 vs €1.53 consensus). EBITDA declined by an underlying -4.8% to €15.1bn […]

Reed Elsevier (REL-LN, REN-AE): Journal pricing – the issue that refuses to die

Reed Elsevier Price: 530p/€9.1 Recommendation: HOLD Target Price: 543p/€10.2 Upside: +2%/+12% Next event: FY11 results – Thurs 16th Feb “Boycott Elsevier campaign” The issue of Journal pricing is one that refuses to die. Normally, the rhetoric gets fired up in the run up the year-end subscription renewal season. This time however, those negotiations passed relatively […]

AMAZON (AMZN-US) – Opportunity as group loses growth rating (WYT valuation perspective)

AMAZON (AMZN-US) Price: $177 Target: $158 Recommendation; HOLD – Long term over-weight (seek entry at around our $158 TP) Amazon – You can deliver growth, or margins, but woe betide a ‘go go’ growth stock disappointing on both metrics. In our analysis of the relationship between revenue growth and growth ratings of what we called […]

Yell – haircut for debt holders, but implications for the equity?

When debt holders are prepared to sell out at only 35% of face value, what does this say about the value of the equity?  Aptly timed for Friday 13th, Yell announced the first tranche of its £159m debt re-purchase programme with the purchase of debt with a face value equivalent to £137.5m for consideration of only […]