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Lies, damn lies and Govt statistics

On Friday 25th the US will report its advance estimate for Q2 GDP growth, although the main point of interest may again be the how the numbers have been doctored to fit a political narrative. Back on 5 May, we highlighted the way in which the Q1 growth estimate of +3.2% had been overstated and […]

Seasonal adjustments salvage what would have been a dire October non-farm payroll number

Think +142k in October for Private sector jobs was poor? How would you feel about +37k then? Unlike in some countries, the US government would never stoop so low as bend some piece of economic data to gain a political advantage ahead of an election. The recovery in Q3 GDP to +2.9% (‘real’) trumpeted a […]