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November non-farm payrolls – Bah Humbug!
I can hardly contain myself with excitement. US non-farm payroll data for November is out and the headlines are that the +321k MoM additions (+314k for the more relevant Private sector jobs) “smashes forecasts†(Guardian) and that “The dollar has gone through the roof†(City AM). With another month of unemployment at only 5.8% (try […]
Continue readingMarkets find it tough to break the BTFD conditioning
Was the Friday rebound in equity markets another BTFD opportunity, or a possible suckers rally? Certainly, the wall of central bank liquidity over the past five years have reduced the market’s pricing mechanism to little more than a pavlovian response to the next turn of the central tap and where bad news can be good […]
Continue readingITV – market continues to chase short term data
Accounting for around a third of display advertising and including most of the larger US brands, it should come as little surprise that UK TV advertising would be sensitive to US marketing investment decisions. For those looking at just UK domestic consumption, the rebound in UK TV NAR over the last couple of years may have […]
Continue readingDeteriorating US NFP – a negative lead indicator for marketing investment
US labor laws mean that US companies can hire and fire with relative impunity. Regardless of the longer term advisability of treating what ought to be a longer term resourse as swing capacity, it does afford equity markets with a near real time metric of US corporate investment and an effective lead indicator. When firm’s […]
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