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Lies, damn lies and Govt statistics
On Friday 25th the US will report its advance estimate for Q2 GDP growth, although the main point of interest may again be the how the numbers have been doctored to fit a political narrative. Back on 5 May, we highlighted the way in which the Q1 growth estimate of +3.2% had been overstated and […]
Continue readingYield curve danger signals
A flattening yield curve is often taken as a bad omen for prospective GPD growth, so according to this theory, surely the increasing divergence in rates across the maturity range is good? Hmm, well actually no, as yields also diverged, while falling in the 2-3 quarters immediately preceding the last two recessions. Perhaps horse and […]
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