Author Archives: adel

SVB bailout – failing the smell test!

So, no sooner than US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen implies no bailout for failed woke bank SVB  “We’re not going to do that again,”  what to we get, but an effective bailout for its uber wealthy depositors.  The yet unanswered question however, remains whether this is an abandonment of the $250k FDIC insurance cap on deposits, […]

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SVB failure – Moral Hazzard? Yellen Says No Bail Out

Will the US government again be bounced into bailouts following last week’s shock failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and subsequent seizure by the FDIC? The seemingly emphatic answer from ex US Fed chair and now US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is not.  “We’re not going to do that again,” she is reported to have […]

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Nothing to see here, move along..!

Back in November, I reported on the alarming increases in excess mortality and as this blog’s prime focus is on financial markets I thought to express this reality through the share prices of two groups that were on opposing sides of this dynamic. This included Lincoln National (LNC) which insures the living and Service Corp […]

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A very odd recession!

Oh what a wonderful recession it is. Perhaps this is just the Sitzkreig before the real impacts are felt, but for now the stats from US employment data has yet to support the widespread news narrative of layoffs as the BLS reports US net private sector job growth approaching +400k in January. Maybe the fear […]

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Will the Fed repeat the mistakes of the 1970’s by easing too early?

Natural gas and oil prices are off their peaks, so unsurprisingly so are reported rates of inflation. These in turn have been driving both bond and equity markets since the end of December in anticipation that central banks will ease off the monetary easing and thereby help avoid a potential recession this year.  All this […]

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Falling used car prices and implications for residual values and margins

After a couple of bumper years, used car prices are now falling, with two further reports out this week suggesting a worsening rate of decline. For manufacturers of new cars & trucks, this presents a challenge to prospective profitability as the residual value assumptions that has been bolstering their financing operational profits may now flip […]

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US employment data yet to support an early easing in monetary policy

We may be heading for a recession, but not one that is so far being flagged by current US employment or wage data. For those anticipating an early peaking of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, that therefore might come as a disappointment, as without a more pressing evidence of an already significant cooling […]

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Asset allocation for 2023 – first pick your macro scenario

Go into a car salesroom or estate agent (realtor) and ask if it’s a good time to buy and I think we all know what the answer would be. Why then should we be surprised at a similar response from those pushing ‘stawks’ and bonds for a living? Here, the year-end prognostications for 2023 from […]

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