Syrian Kabuki – follow the fleets, not the tweets

Have we given a lunatic the keys to the asylum?  Donny ‘Two-Scoops’ recent Tweet on Syria might seem to suggest as much. Even if one were to ignore the playground language of a five year old, the contents were also deeply troubling on several levels.

Sun Tzu or Buffoon?

1. The first and foremost is that the Russians are already committed to responding if also attacked, which given the extent to which they are integrated into Syria defence infra-structure is an almost inevitability on any major strike on the country. Not only has Russia promised to attempt to intercept any missiles (as per Trump’s tweet reference below), but also to make retaliatory strikes at the launch platforms. For those that like things spelt out to them in simple words, General Sir Robert Barrons helpfully suggested “That’s War!”, albeit the initial act of war would in fact be the illegal attack on a sovereign nation.
2. Evidence: So has Trump established the facts behind this alleged nefarious act by Assad? Is it not worthy of debate that the only ‘evidence’ so far submitted has been from the ‘head-chopper’ side, while Assad and Russia forcefully deny the accusation? Clearly Assad must be the dumbest man on earth. Having surrounded the rebels in Douma and with Trump having already announced his intention to remove his troops from Syria, Assad was on the brink of victory. But, no, according to the manufactured narrative, Assad did the one thing that could galvanise external opposition to him and decided to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory by gassing his people. While mainstream media and the political ‘elite’ on both sides of the Atlantic seem to be incapable of exercising even the most basic common sense, they should remember ‘Cui Bono?’.
3. Sun Tzu meets Cui Bono: Perhaps POTUS has had a ‘senior moment’, but his war posturing over Syria would seem to be at complete odds with his recommendations to Obama back in 2013. Then it was wasteful of resources (“DO NOT ATTACK SYRIA – IF YOU DO MANY VERY BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN & FROM THAT FIGHT THE U.S. GETS NOTHING!”), while Obama’s telegraphing of his intentions (“blurted all over the media like fools.”), was also heavily criticised.  Not a lot seems to have changed in the intervening years, beyond ISIS being significantly diminished, so why are so many in the media and elite so eager to believe the superficial narrative being presented to them. Perhaps a little less normative conformity is needed and a bit more respect for an opponent. If Trump was really intent on an early shooting war in Syria, perhaps his top brass might have pointed out that he might need a little more than just one destroyer (the aptly named USS Donald Cook – yes the one electronically disabled by Russian jets in the Black Sea a couple of years ago) in the theatre. While a sacrificial lamb may suit some interested parties, the loss of a destroyer without support is not something that would endear Trump to his base ahead of the mid-term elections.  Perhaps the armchair warriors out there should take more note of where US carrier fleets are positioned first. A new carrier strike group centred around the USS Harry S. Truman meanwhile has just been deployed (yesterday) from Norfolk, Virginia to the Middle East/Mediterranean. The carrier, along with the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy and destroyers USS Arleigh Burke, USS Bulkeley, USS Forrest Sherman and USS Farragut, will head out for its new designation on April 11.  That’s a distance of about 6,000 miles, which means with support ships a journey of approx two weeks before this group will be in effective range to support a possible hot-war in the Eastern Med. In the meantime, the OPCW (Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons) is due to send its investigators to the now Russian controlled site in Douma in 4 days time (the 16th April). By the time the fleet arrives therefore, there ought to be preliminary evidence from a non-partisan and qualified source to determine whether it will be needed. How embarrassing for the mass media, deep-state and political elite (including May and Macron) if it points to another false flag.

And it’s not as if Trump hasn’t got form in winding up the language on Twitter!

Big button, but no big bang yet

So, the conclusion? Trump is yanking your chain again and may well be closer to agreement with Putin than the general narrative is assuming. The issue in the ME revolves more around the internal politics in Iran, than Syria, where the US vested interest to support a gas pipeline from Qatar has evaporated as US LNG facilities have come on stream and now place it in direct competition for markets, such as Europe. Remember the Kabuki on North Korea back in January?  While the tactic is in danger of failing once everyone cottons on to his asymmetric negotiations, a quick view of all the current main media headlines, suggests that may be some time off yet.