The shape of things to come?

This QuickTake by Bloomberg video drive-thru of Wuhan paints an eeerily post-apocalyptic image that might be straight out of Twelve Monkeys or The Omega Man. My first reaction was to avoid any stock that needs to bring people together (restaurants, cinemas, airlines, event organisers, hotels etc) as the public reaction to this coronavirus is clearly […]

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Airlines – back to the old ‘normal’

Manipulating monetary conditions leads to bad investment decisions as we have seen with the airline industry. 18 months ago its principal trade body IATA was waxing lyrical about the industry, as were financial pundits. Unfortunately, they underestimated the impact that low funding costs would also have on margins and profits in a capital intensive industry […]

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Jobs data pain for impeachment obsessed Democrats

Without power, all that’s left is pointless political posturing. Markets therefore should be content to suck up some short term central bank profligacy if it can deliver more solid jobs and wages data, as we’ve seen in November’s non-farm payroll data. But then again, perhaps voters will want to take a risk on an increasingly […]

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‘Moar’ central planning call by new ECB chief

“Moar, Moar and Moar” seems to be the message from the ECB’s new president, Christine Lagarde in her first speech in that role. ‘Moar’ EU and EMU, ‘Moar’ fiscal loosening and therefore ‘Moar’ monetary indulgence that will be needed to pay for it. Perhaps more worrying however, was the central planning sub-text running through this […]

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US jobs growth – not ‘Yuge’, but good enough

Net private sector job adds in October of +131k, with average wages stabilising to +2.6% annualised and +3.0% YoY is about as close to a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario’ as one could reasonably expect in the current trade war. While perhaps disappointing for those hoping for further Fed easing, the October jobs data is not without its […]

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US porridge cooling, but still far from congealed

Another month of easing net job additions, but this time without the support of higher wage growth. Normally, such a report would be positive for markets, in that while not signalling recession, it is limp enough to keep the Fed dovish. As we approach 2020 however, the narrative around these monthly reports will become increasingly […]

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