Gold slumps – forming a ‘Macron bottom’?

So what’s up with the Gold price, which has tumbled by approx -5% in less than 48 hours?  While 10 year US treasury yields are barely changed, a falling gold price on a rising US dollar suggests the Fed may be forced kicking and screaming back onto a monetary tightening tack and this also seems […]

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A Reserves based Valuation for Gold Miners

Resources companies can often present a quandary for traditional valuation techniques. Is a hole in the ground a potential asset, or the guys digging it worth an opportunity premium in case they find more gold?  They are of course a bit of both, but the long lead times from sinking the capital to delivering the […]

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What if?

The progression of the Wuhan ‘lab leak’ hypothesis from conspiracy theory to mainstream consensus provides a salutary lesson not to accept an already implausible narrative because powerful vested interests would rather you did.  So consider this and the potential ramifications. What if the S Spike protein is the pathogen responsible for platelets to clump and […]

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Middleby gets stitched up like a kipper!

Nil premium mergers are tough to complete, particularly when a stretched balance sheet forces it to be funded with equity at a time when debt is cheap.  This is due to the target company exposing itself as up for sale, but unable to offer its shareholders a control premium beyond some nebulous longer term shared […]

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Lab-leak hypothesis – and the next shoe to drop?

Investing can sometimes feel like quantum physics, where there is no reality, but just a probability of outcomes.  While valuing a potentially miss-priced asset on an existing consensus perception of reality is one challenge, this is a mere entree to the broader problem that the future is unlikely to pan out as per the current […]

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AT&T spins out Warner Media – focus on the pipes rather than the sewage!

I’ll say this for new CEO, John Stankey, he’s got balls to spin off the $100bn Warner Media business his predecessor had bought only back in mid 2018. Presumably given John had managed the business briefly ahead of being elevated to COO and then to CEO, he either didn’t like what he saw, or saw […]

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Tf1 + M6 = another French champion?

Someone didn’t seem to get the memo from Macron that French culture and particularly, ‘French exceptionalism’ is no longer de rigeuer and once again corporate France has retreated back to a defensive consolidation along nationalism lines. So much for a sense of European identity.  On the positive side, consolidating two commercial TV operators in the […]

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