New Black Swan Variant

There seems no shortage of possible Black Swan events looming, although markets still seem fixated on the twin fictions; that we can borrow our way out of debt and that we can also vaccinate ourselves out of a pandemic. Unfortunately, endless repetition through a controlled media/Tech will not make either true and over the next […]

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Fed flip-flops on tapering again – haven’t we been here before?

A solid monthly jobs report and the Fed rushes out some rumours that it may bring forward the supposed planned tapering. Yes, they’re that obvious!  From the subsequent -6% drop in the gold price, it would seem a few precious metal traders were happy to take the bait, although the lack of follow through from […]

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June employment data – enough to keep the various bull(S) spin machines fed

June’s US non-farm payroll numbers probably contain enough straws for punters to continue to spin a positive prognosis for markets.  A further  rise in monthly private sector jobs of  +662k,  suggests the US recovery is building, but the modest increase in average earnings, given these are focused on the lower paid and more transitory jobs […]

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Goldilocks, or just cognitive dissonance?

So 9 years after Mario Draghi salvaged markets with his infamous “Whatever it takes” promise by the ECB, his current counterpart at the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell is attempting to repeat the trick, with his testimony to US House of Representative this Monday (21st June) where he promised “We at the Fed will do […]

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Gold slumps – forming a ‘Macron bottom’?

So what’s up with the Gold price, which has tumbled by approx -5% in less than 48 hours?  While 10 year US treasury yields are barely changed, a falling gold price on a rising US dollar suggests the Fed may be forced kicking and screaming back onto a monetary tightening tack and this also seems […]

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A Reserves based Valuation for Gold Miners

Resources companies can often present a quandary for traditional valuation techniques. Is a hole in the ground a potential asset, or the guys digging it worth an opportunity premium in case they find more gold?  They are of course a bit of both, but the long lead times from sinking the capital to delivering the […]

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