Jobs data pain for impeachment obsessed Democrats

Without power, all that’s left is pointless political posturing. Markets therefore should be content to suck up some short term central bank profligacy if it can deliver more solid jobs and wages data, as we’ve seen in November’s non-farm payroll data. But then again, perhaps voters will want to take a risk on an increasingly […]

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‘Moar’ central planning call by new ECB chief

“Moar, Moar and Moar” seems to be the message from the ECB’s new president, Christine Lagarde in her first speech in that role. ‘Moar’ EU and EMU, ‘Moar’ fiscal loosening and therefore ‘Moar’ monetary indulgence that will be needed to pay for it. Perhaps more worrying however, was the central planning sub-text running through this […]

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US jobs growth – not ‘Yuge’, but good enough

Net private sector job adds in October of +131k, with average wages stabilising to +2.6% annualised and +3.0% YoY is about as close to a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario’ as one could reasonably expect in the current trade war. While perhaps disappointing for those hoping for further Fed easing, the October jobs data is not without its […]

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US porridge cooling, but still far from congealed

Another month of easing net job additions, but this time without the support of higher wage growth. Normally, such a report would be positive for markets, in that while not signalling recession, it is limp enough to keep the Fed dovish. As we approach 2020 however, the narrative around these monthly reports will become increasingly […]

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US August jobs – porridge tepid and cooling

Markets weren’t expecting much from the August non-farm employment data and they didn’t disappoint. While average wage growth remained solidly above +3%, the underlying rate of private sector job growth slipped back to an anaemic +64k, with +15k of this coming from temporary help. Although comfortably ahead of the level of contraction that would signal […]

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The cone of uncertainty

Yes, its ‘cone of uncertainty’ time again for hurricane watchers as Dorian ends up over 350 miles from where it was projected to be 5 days ago. Given that the 5 day margin of error on these forecasts appears to only around plus-or-minus 125 miles, this must temper President Trump’s relief that the current forecasts […]

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