Net private sector job adds in October of +131k, with average wages stabilising to +2.6% annualised and +3.0% YoY is about as close to a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario’ as one could reasonably expect in the current trade war. While perhaps disappointing for those hoping for further Fed easing, the October jobs data is not without its […]
Continue reading
Another month of easing net job additions, but this time without the support of higher wage growth. Normally, such a report would be positive for markets, in that while not signalling recession, it is limp enough to keep the Fed dovish. As we approach 2020 however, the narrative around these monthly reports will become increasingly […]
Continue reading
Markets weren’t expecting much from the August non-farm employment data and they didn’t disappoint. While average wage growth remained solidly above +3%, the underlying rate of private sector job growth slipped back to an anaemic +64k, with +15k of this coming from temporary help. Although comfortably ahead of the level of contraction that would signal […]
Continue reading
Good to see US & China agreeing to meet next month and hopefully they’ll start to settle their trade differences. Clearly Trump’s buckling, as China shows itself to be made of sterner stuff than to worry about lower pork imports from the US, despite half their own herd being wiped out by pig ebola. Kenyan […]
Continue reading
Will Corbyn now hold us all hostage with the fixed term Parliament Act? This is all looking a bit like a re-run of the ‘Long Parliament’. “On 1 December 1648 [4 September 2019] , the House voted 129 to 83 to continue negotiations with Charles [the EU] for reforming the government on terms they had […]
Continue reading
Yes, its ‘cone of uncertainty’ time again for hurricane watchers as Dorian ends up over 350 miles from where it was projected to be 5 days ago. Given that the 5 day margin of error on these forecasts appears to only around plus-or-minus 125 miles, this must temper President Trump’s relief that the current forecasts […]
Continue reading
“Wall St. analyst says WWE is his top pick, expects shares to climb 49%“. Gosh, perhaps the 7 senior management insiders that sold approx $23m in stock a week BEFORE the Q2 results announcement that suggested the FY19 guidance might be MISSED, may want to buy their stock back now. LoL! Check out the SEC […]
Continue reading
When in doubt, it seems we all try and cling on to our normalcy bias. While ITV (itv_l) might seem an odd example of markets use of a ‘mean reversion’ to provide a valuation anchor point, this very much depends on the metric used and the perspective sought. Use a fixed metric such as a […]
Continue reading