IHS Markit should be the first to agree that rubbish (‘adjusted’ data) in will lead to rubbish (valuation) out

Give the market a number and it’ll quickly throw back a result. No one should doubt investors’ ability to do basic maths. Give it the wrong number however, and the result will more than likely also be wrong. The old adage of “rubbish in, rubbish out” remains as valid now as ever, which is why […]

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Yellen chickens out – again!

So much for the Yellen’s promise to be “data dependent” in its interest rate policy! With core inflation above the Fed’s forecast range, unemployment well within its longer term target range and private sector job and average wage growth offering no rational support for maintaining the near zero interest rate environment, Yellen’s decision to hold […]

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“Beware the Ides of March” – FOMC rate increase more likely after February’s US jobs data

“And standing here tonight, I’m afraid that I don’t hear – a – thing. Just… silence. …” John Tuld – Margin Call   We are approaching what may prove to be a formative FOMC meeting on 15-16 March. After earlier macro growth fears out of China and a widening cadre of central bankers going full retard with NIRP, there […]

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Surprised by another Monsanto guidance downgrade? Read this

Shares dropped -7% yesterday as “Monsanto Cuts Forecast for 2016, Citing Economic Headwinds” (Wall St Journal leader this morning). Clearly some investors were surprised by this, although quite why is perhaps the real mystery given the pummelling to LatAm demand for agricultural products which their rivals have been more than open about. For those wishing […]

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Preparing for a possible recession from end 2016

  Economics is proving to be a little like a tube of toothpaste. Squeeze it one place and the toothpaste is just displaced elsewhere. When the Fed adopted what was already a failing Japanese experiment in QE in 2008/09, it provided a much needed liquidity fix for the credit crisis, but a dangerous temptation that […]

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