So much for the Yellen’s promise to be “data dependent” in its interest rate policy! With core inflation above the Fed’s forecast range, unemployment well within its longer term target range and private sector job and average wage growth offering no rational support for maintaining the near zero interest rate environment, Yellen’s decision to hold […]
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“And standing here tonight, I’m afraid that I don’t hear – a – thing. Just… silence. …” John Tuld – Margin Call We are approaching what may prove to be a formative FOMC meeting on 15-16 March. After earlier macro growth fears out of China and a widening cadre of central bankers going full retard with NIRP, there […]
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Shares dropped -7% yesterday as “Monsanto Cuts Forecast for 2016, Citing Economic Headwinds” (Wall St Journal leader this morning). Clearly some investors were surprised by this, although quite why is perhaps the real mystery given the pummelling to LatAm demand for agricultural products which their rivals have been more than open about. For those wishing […]
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It may not be a surprise, but we use the GrowthRater system to manage a model portfolio of long and short positions which we will provide some more detail on once we can get out for under this barrage of company results. Needless to say, the criteria we use is to go long stocks that […]
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Economics is proving to be a little like a tube of toothpaste. Squeeze it one place and the toothpaste is just displaced elsewhere. When the Fed adopted what was already a failing Japanese experiment in QE in 2008/09, it provided a much needed liquidity fix for the credit crisis, but a dangerous temptation that […]
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With a new Chairman on board and consensus forecasts for 2016 looking way too high, markets had started to doubt the group’s resolve and its ability to sustain the current rate of dividend. As it transpired, most of what we where suggesting yesterday has been matched by this morning’s release by Pearson (dividend, restructuring, restored […]
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Tomorrow Pearson will release its pre-close trading update for 2015 and markets are understandably reluctant to catch this falling knife before seeing whether the new chairman (Sidney Taurel) has dumped the CEO (John Fallon) and with him, his commitment to maintain the dividend (51p net in 2014 with a 34p final) as his “first priority”. […]
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The vote on the 27 January by Royal Dutch Shareholders on whether to approve the merger with BG that is proposed by its management may have repercussions that extend well beyond the future of this proposed deal. At anywhere near the current oil price, the deal makes no commercial sense as even Shell’s own assessment […]
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