Category Archives for "Oil"

Chevron offer for Anadarko – when cheap money meets rising oil prices

A return to ‘cheap money’ by the Fed and stabilising oil prices and it is perhaps not surprising to see a return to acquisition led growth strategies. For Chevron, its $50bn agreed offer for Anadarko looks to be broadly OpFCF neutral after $1bn of projected OpEx cost synergies from combining these two predominantly North American […]

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Engineering a ‘Santa Rally’ in oil, but what then?

If the price of continued US support after the Khashoggi murder was the lower oil price, then it must rank as one of the  most expensive assassinations of  journalist in history, with Saudi Arabia’s gross oil production revenues down almost $2bn per week. The attempt to resurrect his political reputation at the G20 meeting was […]

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Oil shocker – producers claim to want lower prices!

Good grief, there’s a lot of tosh spouted on where oil prices are going after Russia and Saudi Arabia pulled the plug on the current rally, once Brent oil hit the magical $80/bbl target.  The prize however, must go to Goldman’s straddle, where it seems the ‘technical’ analyst (someone who can draw straight lines) is […]

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Is the current oil price/sector rally getting played out? 

It’s not exactly rocket science to work out that upstream oil profits and therefore oil major share prices are sensitive to prevailing oil prices.  It therefore ought not come as too much of a surprise then to see sector share prices respond favourably to the better than expected rally in oil prices, with Brent hitting […]

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Energy politics and fickle friends

Energy politics makes for fickle friends. A decade ago, Qatar was the US administration’s BFF, with its invitation to relocate the US regional military base from Saudi Arabia to Qatar in return for support to secure a pipeline access through Syria for its soon to be expanding natural gas production. As a way of pricking […]

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China’s crude oil import surge being refined and exported rather than implying rising domestic demand

If unplanned outages from Canada and Nigeria (of approx -2mb/d) have provided the supply side contraction behind the rebound in crude prices, China’s PBOC credit injection of $1tn in Q1 has helped to deliver the demand side component, which along with ECB and BoJ NIRP, have also helped keep the record levels of global inventories […]

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Oil stocks continue to reach beyond a $60/bbl oil price

Mr Micawber it seems is alive and well over at OPEC, where the last ‘do nothing’ meeting has ended in the warm glow of oil prices being up 80% since the last event (in Dec 2015), with the narrative of a market experiencing a net reduction in non-OPEC supply of approx -740k b/d against global […]

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Capitulation on oil price expectations may be needed before recovery

The vote on the 27 January by Royal Dutch Shareholders on whether to approve the merger with BG that is proposed by its management may have repercussions that extend well beyond the future of this proposed deal. At anywhere near the current oil price, the deal makes no commercial sense as even Shell’s own assessment […]

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