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June US non-farm payrolls beat expectations! But did they?

Another month and another non-farm payroll number to interpret. Before you start to worry that the ‘better than expected’ MoM increase in private sector employment growth of +265k is going to accelerate the Fed’s interest rate tightening schedule, don’t. As usual, the numbers are open to interpretation as well as substantial revisions. The May […]

Currency winners and losers after Brexit

The second quarter has now closed and after some fairly volatile currency movements in the closing week, it is a good point to take stock of the potential impacts to company forecasts. As markets should be already aware, Sterling reporting groups will benefit from a not insignificant fx translation tailwind from the Q3 on […]

Boris bounced from leadership race, but not buried

What was Michael Gove thinking when he knifed Boris? The man freely admits to having “no charisma”, yet having already dumped his previous friend ‘Dave’ Cameron, now thought he could also betray the man who had acted as torchbearer for the Leave campaign. Perhaps someone had whispered “Thane of Cawdor in his ear”. While Boris’s […]

Remember ‘Black Wednesday’? 3 stocks added to the GrowthRater model portfolio

‘Black Wednesday’ may have seemed pretty bleak at the time, but the over 12% decline in Sterling that accompanied our ejection from the ERM provided the stimulus to what subsequently became a boom that lasted to 2008. Looking at the carnage in the equity and fx markets immediately following the Brexit referendum result last Friday […]

Auf Wiedersehen – pet (Brexit)

Amongst all the carnage of Brexit, something to lighten the mood. Rowan Atkinson singing the European Anthem. Like the real thing, it starts off well (once in the right key), but then descends into chaos.

Brexit countdown – modelling a ‘what if’ using ITV as an example

Only four trading days to go before the Brexit vote, so if you believe the current polls are more accurate than for the Scottish referendum, you are probably already underweight or short Sterling, UK Banks and groups exposed to UK domestic consumption (advertising, retail, hotels & restaurants, property and even some German auto manufacturers etc) […]

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