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Facebook Q3 results: Shaking out the momentum traders, albeit still a little early for the deep value guys
It has a great model and enormous growth potential, but you’ll have to excuse my cynicism at the way revenues, margins and expectations were pumped up this year. (see my comment back in May after the Q1 results – http://growthrater.com/facebook-q1-beat-followed-controlling-shareholder-share-sale-ring-bells/#topbar_header) Having pushed higher yielding newsfeed-only advertising on mobile and saturated advertising loadings, we’ve […]
Continue readingeBay – Closing long position with gain of +30% (+28% relative: +60% annualised)
eBay long positioned closed at $31.9 ps to crystallise a >+30% absolute and +28% relative gain (vs the S&P500) since we added the stock to the GrowthRater portfolio, just over 5 months ago at $24.5 ps (http://growthrater.com/ebay-added-growthrater-model-portfolio-close-price-24-49/). Annualised, that represents a return of +65% on the trade and +60% on a relative basis against the […]
Continue readingDMGT – added to GrowthRater model portfolio at 704p
DMGT – added to GrowthRater model portfolio at 704p The shares have been off my radar over the last couple of years after having broken above the top of my GrowthRating range (of +2.6-4.1% CAGR) and as organic revenue momentum dropped below this as the structural decay in print advertising continued, falling oil prices impacted […]
Continue readingIs it a surprise that most investors lose money when they are relying on a flawed metric?
Confused? Don’t worry, because you’re supposed to be. That way you can be sold a metric that has been anointed as the approved currency by which you are meant to determine the value of the goods or services being transacted. The fact that this currency may be flawed is fairly immaterial because it’s good for […]
Continue readingValuing gold stocks – we start with Barrick Gold
Thank heavens for Brexit. For a moment there, it was looking as though Yellen had painted herself into a corner and might actually have had to raise rates. Now with Brexit, we clearly need MOAR monetary stimulus from central banks, notwithstanding the real problems being kept at bay relate more to the rotten state of […]
Continue readingBrexit countdown – modelling a ‘what if’ using ITV as an example
Only four trading days to go before the Brexit vote, so if you believe the current polls are more accurate than for the Scottish referendum, you are probably already underweight or short Sterling, UK Banks and groups exposed to UK domestic consumption (advertising, retail, hotels & restaurants, property and even some German auto manufacturers etc) […]
Continue readingMediaset is still looking like a value trap
Reviewing last week’s Mediaset results I was struck by a sense of deja vue. Here was a company that for a third consecutive year was denying that it was not trying to sell its lossmaking PayTV unit (Mediaset Premium) in the face of supposedly well sourced rumour to the contrary, this time to Vincent Bollore’s […]
Continue readingGrowthRater model portfolio: Adding FedEx (FDX) at $143
If you’re looking for a US cyclical to rotate into after Yellen’s performance of ignoring all her own data and refusing to put up rates, then I think FedEx may not be a bad home and as a consequence we are adding this stock as a long to our model portfolio with the shares having […]
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