interest rate normalisation Archives

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Rising Bond Yields & a Flattening Curve

A flattening yield curve is often seen as an ominous portend of economic doom, while a forced increase in interest rates can often ensure its delivery. This convergence however, is the conclusion of a tale that has been in the making for a couple of decades, but one where the inflationary consequences now threaten to […]

US Jobs data signal a shift in the monetary narrative

Oops, those betting on a weak US jobs report for January have been seriously wrong-footed. Instead of the expected negative figure, the BLS not only reported over +400k of net jobs in January, but a +649k upward revision to the jobs growth reported for the previous two months. Roll-in an average hourly wage inflation approaching […]

Are equity markets expensive?

This is a regular question posed by investors and market commentators, but in many ways is also the most meaningless. This is because the relative merits of equities as an asset class owes more to the ebb and flow of liquidity to goose demand, rather than some theoretical notion of a ‘correct’ valuation that should […]