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Seasonal adjustments salvage what would have been a dire October non-farm payroll number
Think +142k in October for Private sector jobs was poor? How would you feel about +37k then? Unlike in some countries, the US government would never stoop so low as bend some piece of economic data to gain a political advantage ahead of an election. The recovery in Q3 GDP to +2.9% (‘real’) trumpeted a […]
Continue readingUS employment data for July – rate fears over-done (again)
Another month and another non-farm payroll number for markets to chew on. After what is now looking to be an abnormal data point for May, private sector employment growth has now posted a second month of gains at over 200k. Stretch this out over a year and we are still talking an average monthly increase […]
Continue readingAnother non-farm payroll and another missed opportunity to normalise rates
“Silence”. That is what I hear after yesterday’s March US non-farm payroll figures. Even a few months ago, these data points, while flawed were eagerly awaited as harbingers of revisions in US Fed monetary policy. Not any more. After February’s decision to hold rates in what looks like a clumsy attempt to goose oil prices […]
Continue readingPreparing for a possible recession from end 2016
Economics is proving to be a little like a tube of toothpaste. Squeeze it one place and the toothpaste is just displaced elsewhere. When the Fed adopted what was already a failing Japanese experiment in QE in 2008/09, it provided a much needed liquidity fix for the credit crisis, but a dangerous temptation that […]
Continue readingUS dollar rise has further to go before the Fed will panic
After the equity market drubbing into the first week of 2016, attention was back on the Fed and whether an expected weak set of employment data for December might provide some political cover to forestall the next upward revision in interest rates possibly due in March. If the Fed holds rates however, it won’t be […]
Continue readingWill the Fed finally enter rehab at its 15-16 December FOMC meeting?
Is the Fed that junkie that keeps on promising to kick the habit because they know the dire consequences if they don’t, but just want that last fix because it feels so good and they’re frightened of cold turkey? How many times has the Fed now signalled it will come off the QE juice but […]
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