Category Archives for "Economics"

“It sure is a hell of a lot easier just being first” (John Tuld – Margin Call)

//youtu.be/ag14Ao_xO4c   Has Yellen seen the movie Margin Call, I wonder? In it, Jeremy Iron’s classic Wall Street boss (John Tuld) referred to 3 ways of making a living: be first, be smarter, or cheat. Of course in financial markets these are not mutually exclusive options where Governments habitually use their central banks to operate […]

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Expect Yellen to chicken out again on rate rise for September

Will she or won’t she? It seems with Fed interest rate policy remaining the only game in town, strategists are stuck with trying to second guess Yellen’s next move at the forthcoming FOMC on 16-17 September. Of course we’ve been here before and we can look at all the evidence and data under the sun […]

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Get the oil price right and make the right call on oil stocks

Invest in an oil major such as Exxon or Chevron and there are two over-riding factors to consider. The first and probably obvious one for Groups which traditionally make over three quarters of their income from pumping oil and gas out of the ground is the price of oil. While an oil spill and >$40bn […]

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Tsipras makes Merkel an offer she can’t refuse

How should we interpret this week’s volte-face by Tsipras and the Syriza government in approving austerity concessions to the Troika that had been specifically rejected by Greek voters in a referendum less than a week before? Short term, this would seem to provide an opportunity for celebration for creditors and financial markets in that the […]

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Greek referendum – all part of the Varoufakis game

Greece votes a resounding 61% “No” to the Troika debt proposals, yet financial markets remain largely unfazed, with European equity markets declining initially by less than 2% and 10 year bond yields for Italy, Spain and Portugal harden by less than 10bps. With traders having been weaned on a succession of last minute resolutions to […]

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