consensus forecasts Archives

Tag Archives for " consensus forecasts "

What’s wrong with Facebook?

Markets don’t seem to like Facebook. Those with access to the mean reversion analysis in the GrowthRater WebApp will be aware of the systematic relationship between organic revenue growth for these super-normal ‘growthers’ and how far out markets are reaching out to revert the growth rating and OpFCF yield back a market average. While also […]

GrowthRater portfolio – closing longs on FedEx (+34% with +20% rel) and DMGT (+8% & +5% rel)

To pay for the Christmas presents, I’ll be closing a couple of long positions in the GrowthRater portfolio when markets open. One because it has done what I had hoped for and more (FedEx) and the other because it is increasing looking like dead money, or worse, in the face of deterioration in its markets […]

Gartner Inc follow-up as US jobs data confirms softening trend for Info segment

Last month I flagged a warning on Gartner Inc. Consensus forecasts for a sustained rate of revenue growth over the next two years are clearly wrong. The question is whether they are too high or too low. In the blog piece on the subject I highlighted the correlation of the group’s organic revenue record to […]

Gartner Inc – Consensus forecasts in straight lines are usually wrong

Nature may abhor a straight line, but analyst forecasts don’t seem to, even when estimating revenues for a business with an historic margin of error on revenues of over +/-4ppts. I take a look at Gartner as consensus forecasts predict what its never achieved before, a straight run of revenue growth and into a slowing […]

Preparing for a possible recession from end 2016

Economics is proving to be a little like a tube of toothpaste. Squeeze it one place and the toothpaste is just displaced elsewhere. When the Fed adopted what was already a failing Japanese experiment in QE in 2008/09, it provided a much needed liquidity fix for the credit crisis, but a dangerous temptation that […]

Pearson’s moment of truth – tomorrow’s 2015 pre-close IMS

Tomorrow Pearson will release its pre-close trading update for 2015 and markets are understandably reluctant to catch this falling knife before seeing whether the new chairman (Sidney Taurel) has dumped the CEO (John Fallon) and with him, his commitment to maintain the dividend (51p net in 2014 with a 34p final) as his “first priority”. […]