Fed rate increase Archives

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US wage growth slows in August

In between hurricanes, German elections, North Korean bomb and missile tests and the usual Jackson Hole navel gazing fest for central bankers, the August non-farm payroll estimates from the BLS may have struggled to make the front pages. At +165k, net private sector job additions for the month (+174k excluding movements in seasonal adjustments), it […]

When you need to believe the ‘crazies’ are in control

Management by chaos . Did anyone seriously believe that Trump would be able to get his ambitious stimulus plan through Congress if the economy was chugging along nicely as Yellen was continuing to portray? It was almost as implausible as expecting the EU to offer a painless Brexit for the UK while they remain convinced we […]

Trump and hot air lift February US jobs data – but will this be enough to justify a rate rise?

Does anyone not expect a March rate increase? After raising its Q1 GDP estimate from +3.09% to +3.19%, the +227k net private sector job adds reported in yesterday’s non-farm payroll data for February (after the +298k already reported mid-week by ADP), coming after similarly buoyant data released for January, the Fed seems to be setting […]

US state tax receipts fall by -2.2%; hardly a prelude for a Fed rate increase!

Sometimes the ‘facts’ are difficult to reconcile, particularly when these are government statistics. For Yellen this has included maintaining the fiction that all is well with the US economic recovery, but not so good that the Fed should take its foot off the monetary accelerator. Along with other market commentators we monitor the monthly data […]

Another US non-farm payroll report and probably another deferral of the interest rate increase

The Fed it seems is off the hook for an interest rate increase for at least another month after the May non-farm payroll number. At +38k of net additions for the month (+25k for private sector) and with March and April figures also restated down by -59k, this is hardly the escape velocity of a […]

Will the Fed finally enter rehab at its 15-16 December FOMC meeting?

Is the Fed that junkie that keeps on promising to kick the habit because they know the dire consequences if they don’t, but just want that last fix because it feels so good and they’re frightened of cold turkey? How many times has the Fed now signalled it will come off the QE juice but […]