adel
- Home /
- Author's Archive:
Airlines – back to the old ‘normal’
Manipulating monetary conditions leads to bad investment decisions as we have seen with the airline industry. 18 months ago its principal trade body IATA was waxing lyrical about the industry, as were financial pundits. Unfortunately, they underestimated the impact that low funding costs would also have on margins and profits in a capital intensive industry […]
Continue readingJobs data pain for impeachment obsessed Democrats
Without power, all that’s left is pointless political posturing. Markets therefore should be content to suck up some short term central bank profligacy if it can deliver more solid jobs and wages data, as we’ve seen in November’s non-farm payroll data. But then again, perhaps voters will want to take a risk on an increasingly […]
Continue reading‘Moar’ central planning call by new ECB chief
“Moar, Moar and Moar” seems to be the message from the ECB’s new president, Christine Lagarde in her first speech in that role. ‘Moar’ EU and EMU, ‘Moar’ fiscal loosening and therefore ‘Moar’ monetary indulgence that will be needed to pay for it. Perhaps more worrying however, was the central planning sub-text running through this […]
Continue readingUS jobs growth – not ‘Yuge’, but good enough
Net private sector job adds in October of +131k, with average wages stabilising to +2.6% annualised and +3.0% YoY is about as close to a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario’ as one could reasonably expect in the current trade war. While perhaps disappointing for those hoping for further Fed easing, the October jobs data is not without its […]
Continue readingUS porridge cooling, but still far from congealed
Another month of easing net job additions, but this time without the support of higher wage growth. Normally, such a report would be positive for markets, in that while not signalling recession, it is limp enough to keep the Fed dovish. As we approach 2020 however, the narrative around these monthly reports will become increasingly […]
Continue readingUS August jobs – porridge tepid and cooling
Markets weren’t expecting much from the August non-farm employment data and they didn’t disappoint. While average wage growth remained solidly above +3%, the underlying rate of private sector job growth slipped back to an anaemic +64k, with +15k of this coming from temporary help. Although comfortably ahead of the level of contraction that would signal […]
Continue readingWinning a trade war?
Good to see US & China agreeing to meet next month and hopefully they’ll start to settle their trade differences. Clearly Trump’s buckling, as China shows itself to be made of sterner stuff than to worry about lower pork imports from the US, despite half their own herd being wiped out by pig ebola. Kenyan […]
Continue reading2019 or 1648?
Will Corbyn now hold us all hostage with the fixed term Parliament Act? This is all looking a bit like a re-run of the ‘Long Parliament’. “On 1 December 1648 [4 September 2019] , the House voted 129 to 83 to continue negotiations with Charles [the EU] for reforming the government on terms they had […]
Continue reading