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Market complacency may be its undoing
Welcome to the Q1 reporting season. If you hadn’t noticed yet, Easter came early this year (good for retailers, airlines etc) and there is a minefield of shifting currencies and commodity prices to adjust for as well as some decidedly mixed macro data coming out from the major trading economies. If you’re selling out of […]
Continue readingKrafting an exit after struggling to restore growth
After a less than sparkling recovery in Q4 FY14 organic revenue growth to under +3.5% YoY, the Kraft management seems to have thrown in the towel to the current financial masters at Heinz (Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital) and agreed to its ‘merger’ offer. While conceding most of the plum jobs in the new combine […]
Continue readingITV’s turn to buy into the de Mol format dream
The story is an old one. Broadcaster facing erosion of its distribution monopoly buys successful production business to supplement the lack of creative output from its own in-house content origination arm. Whether it was TVS’s purchase of MTM, Thames TV’s acquisition of Reeves or Pearson’s serial offending with Grundy and then All American, the narrative […]
Continue readingYahoo unveils ‘SpinCo’. Well it can’t be plainer than that surely?
Yahoo Inc: New management has finally accepted what the markets have been trying to discount for some time; that with Jerry Wang’s legacy investments in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan, Yahoo was beginning to look like an investment trust. New CEO, Marissa Marr’s decision to split off the remaining (15.4%) stake in Alibaba into a new […]
Continue readingTesco: Phase 2 – reset investor expectations
It’s always entertaining to see good people-management at work. As with a new Government, a new management needs to persuade the stakeholders that their predicament is substantially worse than previous team were letting on, but that with a little pain, the new team and plan (usually with a catchy name) will secure recovery by the […]
Continue readingEnterprise Inns: Asset play or just value trap?
Enterprise Inns (ETI): With a share price at an almost 60% discount to NAV, this may appear to be a compelling asset play, albeit this argument might have also appeared valid when the discount was 30%,40% or 50%. As with banks in 2008, a balance sheet asset is only as good as the credibility it […]
Continue readingNovember non-farm payrolls – Bah Humbug!
I can hardly contain myself with excitement. US non-farm payroll data for November is out and the headlines are that the +321k MoM additions (+314k for the more relevant Private sector jobs) “smashes forecasts†(Guardian) and that “The dollar has gone through the roof†(City AM). With another month of unemployment at only 5.8% (try […]
Continue readingAirlines and oil prices
With fuel costs representing 45-50% of an airline’s operating costs and 35% of its revenues, it would seem self-evident that a significant movement in oil, and therefore fuel prices, would have an equally dramatic effect on margins; in particular when the industry’s margins are often the wrong side of 5%. The oil price however is […]
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