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US adds +205k jobs in July – normally a positive for the US dollar, but now?
The problem of communicating a softening macro outlook is that it lowers interest rate expectations which in turn is a buy signal for not just investors, but also recruiters. So while the IMF cut its US GDP expectations for 2017 and 2018 by -20bps and -30bps respectively (both now to +2.1%) and currency markets have ‘drumfped’ […]
Continue readingP&G slashes digital spend with no impact – an ‘Oops’ moment for digital!
Those following Alphabet’s Q2 results may have noticed the changing mix driving revenues. While year-on-year organic revenue growth is still comfortably holding above +20% pa, it is increasingly driven by accelerating growth in paid clicks which are offsetting a higher rate of decline in the price per click that it receives. Given the auction basis […]
Continue readingWazzup – 27 July 2017 – a results palooza!
A results deluge today as companies report Q2 numbers ahead of the August holidays. Updates from RELX, ITV, DMGT, Sky, A3M, S&P Global, Amazon, Comcast, Nielsen, Solocal, Barrick, Dow Chemical, Fiat Chrysler, Eastman Chemical, BASF, Air Products, Danone and VW, to name a few. RELX – H1 FY17 results. Fortunately, another steady […]
Continue readingInterpublic Q2 disappoints – the canary in the coal mine?
From the -100bps drop in margins as organic sales growth slowed to only +0.4% for its Q2, IPG clearly didn’t see it coming, particularly following the solid performance in Q1 and the easier prior year comparatives it was cycling against for Q2. This lack of visibility and the uncertain impact of Fed monetary tightening on […]
Continue readingYellen does virtuous – 5 years too late!
Confused? Well you should be be if you’ve been believing the usual output from the Federal Reserve. Contrary to the narrative of robust US economic growth and tightening labour markets requiring a normalisation of interest rates, things aren’t quite as rosy as Ms Yellen had been suggesting. Behind the increasingly absurd non-farm payroll data with […]
Continue readingWazzup – 11th July 2017
German specialist cooker manufacturer Rational took top honours today with its guidance upgrade as US chain sales continue to storm ahead while back in Brexitland, an underwhelming Q1 sales report from M&S and for Pearson a difficult attempted exit from its consumer book venture (PRH) did little to lift the gloom. . Rational – FY17 […]
Continue readingJune US payrolls: Dead zone between Fed rate decisions
With the Fed having already edged up rates, June’s non-farm payrolls were going to have to be fairly spectacular to merit much attention as the ‘new’ Presidential grand tour moves to Europe and the G20. The reported MoM net job additions of +222k looked solid enough, although strip out government adds of +35k and Private […]
Continue readingUK consumers running on empty
If the UK consumer expenditure numbers reported by VISA in mid June suggest a stalling domestic economy, last week’s ONS release of the UK household savings ratio for Q1 suggests piggy banks are having to be raided to fund what little growth in expenditures we are seeing. This all seems a World away from the […]
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