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IHS Markit should be the first to agree that rubbish (‘adjusted’ data) in will lead to rubbish (valuation) out
Give the market a number and it’ll quickly throw back a result. No one should doubt investors’ ability to do basic maths. Give it the wrong number however, and the result will more than likely also be wrong. The old adage of “rubbish in, rubbish out” remains as valid now as ever, which is why […]
Continue readingFedEx – for those that like to follow, read Barron’s
Seems someone noticed the price went up +14% last week. Thank you Barron’s. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fedex-barron-s-idUSKCN0WN03K From the “see it move, chase it” school of investment Keep checking for our next portfolio change here
Continue readingGrowthRater model portfolio: Adding FedEx (FDX) at $143
If you’re looking for a US cyclical to rotate into after Yellen’s performance of ignoring all her own data and refusing to put up rates, then I think FedEx may not be a bad home and as a consequence we are adding this stock as a long to our model portfolio with the shares having […]
Continue readingYellen chickens out – again!
So much for the Yellen’s promise to be “data dependent” in its interest rate policy! With core inflation above the Fed’s forecast range, unemployment well within its longer term target range and private sector job and average wage growth offering no rational support for maintaining the near zero interest rate environment, Yellen’s decision to hold […]
Continue reading“Beware the Ides of March” – FOMC rate increase more likely after February’s US jobs data
“And standing here tonight, I’m afraid that I don’t hear – a – thing. Just… silence. …” John Tuld – Margin Call We are approaching what may prove to be a formative FOMC meeting on 15-16 March. After earlier macro growth fears out of China and a widening cadre of central bankers going full retard with NIRP, there […]
Continue readingSurprised by another Monsanto guidance downgrade? Read this
Shares dropped -7% yesterday as “Monsanto Cuts Forecast for 2016, Citing Economic Headwinds” (Wall St Journal leader this morning). Clearly some investors were surprised by this, although quite why is perhaps the real mystery given the pummelling to LatAm demand for agricultural products which their rivals have been more than open about. For those wishing […]
Continue readingGrowthRater Model Portfolio: Closing long position on Pearson for +22% MoM gain
It may not be a surprise, but we use the GrowthRater system to manage a model portfolio of long and short positions which we will provide some more detail on once we can get out for under this barrage of company results. Needless to say, the criteria we use is to go long stocks that […]
Continue readingPreparing for a possible recession from end 2016
Economics is proving to be a little like a tube of toothpaste. Squeeze it one place and the toothpaste is just displaced elsewhere. When the Fed adopted what was already a failing Japanese experiment in QE in 2008/09, it provided a much needed liquidity fix for the credit crisis, but a dangerous temptation that […]
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