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Pearson defends the dividend and the shares bounce – as we had foreseen!
With a new Chairman on board and consensus forecasts for 2016 looking way too high, markets had started to doubt the group’s resolve and its ability to sustain the current rate of dividend. As it transpired, most of what we where suggesting yesterday has been matched by this morning’s release by Pearson (dividend, restructuring, restored […]
Continue readingPearson’s moment of truth – tomorrow’s 2015 pre-close IMS
Tomorrow Pearson will release its pre-close trading update for 2015 and markets are understandably reluctant to catch this falling knife before seeing whether the new chairman (Sidney Taurel) has dumped the CEO (John Fallon) and with him, his commitment to maintain the dividend (51p net in 2014 with a 34p final) as his “first priority”. […]
Continue readingCapitulation on oil price expectations may be needed before recovery
The vote on the 27 January by Royal Dutch Shareholders on whether to approve the merger with BG that is proposed by its management may have repercussions that extend well beyond the future of this proposed deal. At anywhere near the current oil price, the deal makes no commercial sense as even Shell’s own assessment […]
Continue readingShell shareholders deserve the BG deal they vote for!
There is something very wrong about this chart below. It shows only two things. The price of Brent crude oil and the discount of the BG share price to the offer value from the Royal Dutch Shell offer. The latter data series shows the discount narrowing as regulatory clearances for the merger are received and […]
Continue readingFirst cracks appear as Shell shareholders start to oppose BG merger
Finally, it seems we are seeing some push-back from some Shell shareholders against the impending BG merger which is being voted on by Shell shareholders at the end of this month (27 January). Standard Life has been grumbling for a while, but now finally has gone public. The only question is whether it has all […]
Continue readingUS dollar rise has further to go before the Fed will panic
After the equity market drubbing into the first week of 2016, attention was back on the Fed and whether an expected weak set of employment data for December might provide some political cover to forestall the next upward revision in interest rates possibly due in March. If the Fed holds rates however, it won’t be […]
Continue readingSpinmeisters in an age of algorithmic trading
When over three quarters of equity trading volume is driven by algorithmic trading, who do you think company press releases are increasingly being written for? If you want your news item or blog to even get ranked you need to follow the SEO rules. If you want the algo bot that is going to decide […]
Continue readingIs there an oil price where Shell’s offer for BG doesn’t work?
Is there an oil price where Shell’s BG offer doesn’t make sense? Listening to Shell’s narrative, the position was initially that the oil price was going to rebound into 2016 and beyond, but then as this got progressively pushed back as prices relapsed, the emphasis was placed on the natural hedge that the share component […]
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