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Markets find it tough to break the BTFD conditioning
Was the Friday rebound in equity markets another BTFD opportunity, or a possible suckers rally? Certainly, the wall of central bank liquidity over the past five years have reduced the market’s pricing mechanism to little more than a pavlovian response to the next turn of the central tap and where bad news can be good […]
Continue readingBudget airlines soar in September, but war of the handbags still being fought
Ryanair is still packing in the passengers (Sept +5% with load +5ppts to 90% vs +7.5%/+2.5ppts respectively for EasyJet), although with the Air France strike settled and the end of the summer holiday season I would expect the Oct traffic figures to be a little less supportive. The stock is still my preferred one in […]
Continue readingBeware fake arbitrages on Yahoo – Alibaba!
For an arbitrage opportunity to exist, asset classes need to be fungible (deliverable against each other), so anyone selling you a scheme to “arbitrage” an apparent pricing disparity between related, but non-fungible, assets maybe selling you a dud. When I see investor research by banks, who should know better, promoting “the Yahoo arbitrage trade” […]
Continue readingIPO: Market valuing Alibaba as if it were a normal US tech Co!
I am surprised! Having cleaned up the reported numbers a little (eg including stock comp and intangible amortisation – excl goodwill), and applied a broadly average growth discount trend, the Alibaba NPV on the WYT growth discount model comes within 5% of the post IPO price – nb this already adjusts for forward valuation horizon […]
Continue readingFinally, a memorable financial advert
With marketing infatuated with big data, social media, mobile and any other nerdy technology where they can bamboozle the client with techno-babble, it is a pleasure to see a good creative advert. I may have been ‘exposed’ to a thousand marketing messages from the financial services industry, and for which someone has paid good money, […]
Continue readingCorrelation <> causation, but sometimes maybe!
When I was but a nipper, a wise old Chairman of a large and successful financial information business gave me a valuable piece of advice:Â That mediators extract better margins in poor information environments and when price discovery is obscured. As his business, amongst others, picked off and commoditised market after market with real-time pricing, […]
Continue readingWPP FY14 interims: flat margins on >+4% organic sales
WPP :Â Â The group is tightening the screw on hiring and staff costs to absorb slowing net sales growth while maintaining the public forecasts of rising GDP and advertising expenditure into 2015. The hitherto growth engine markets of BRIC however, are looking increasingly wobbly, while the contraction in margins at the digitally heavy specialist communications […]
Continue readingThe old fox learns a new trick – Murdoch walks away from Time Warner
Having seen the outrageous premium Murdoch paid for the WSJ, markets must have been salivating over how much he might now stump up for Time Warner. Surely, the $86ps ($80bn) offer was a mere opening shot and that the old boy could be bounced into perhaps three figures, or so the narrative went. Not to […]
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