So if Trump’s tariffs are going top hurt the US so much why is the US dollar going up by so much? If Trump’s tax reductions are going to increase the budget deficit, why are currency markets so unconcerned? It is because currency markets understand Trump is going to win. His tax cuts are […]
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Spare a thought for those long suffering shareholders of German commercial TV stocks, RTL and Prosieben as Morgan Stanley dumped on the stocks with a negative report on Friday, sending them down a further 7% and -6% respectively against the DAX index that was up +1%. Presumably it was another rendition of the argument that […]
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Prices are set by the marginal buyer, while financial markets establish conformity around valuation currencies that encourage buying, which in turn stimulates more borrowing and therefore more ‘moolah’ for those that dominate these markets. The latter obscures the ‘real’ price that is being paid by the former, which is why they need tools such as […]
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For Gold bugs, wouldn’t you rather invest in a miner, where its production currency had contracted by almost -20% relative to gold’s principal selling currency, the US dollar? Unfortunately, when the currency in question is falling due to political instability and government threats of confiscation without compensation of property based on race, then the answer […]
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Time Warner shareholders may feel a sense of relief that the AT&T bid is now clear to proceed, but the harsh reality is that they are being screwed. Time value and a declining performance and share price of AT&T has seriously eroded the original offer premium to … ZERO. Indeed, it could be strongly argued […]
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Recency bias is alive and well. “At long last, normal profits are becoming normal for airlines”, so says the IATA in its June 2018 industry update titled “Solid Profits Despite Rising Costs”. After a couple of years of improving margins and ROIC, is this a paradigm shift for investors to jump aboard? Unfortunately, it feels […]
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Equity markets were widely reported to have bounced on Friday after the solid May private sector job growth, albeit the accompanying rise in average hourly wage growth presages another rate rise by the Fed. With EU’s grip on its southern flank unravelling as friendly regimes in Spain and Italy are replaced however, the prospects of […]
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Good grief, there’s a lot of tosh spouted on where oil prices are going after Russia and Saudi Arabia pulled the plug on the current rally, once Brent oil hit the magical $80/bbl target. The prize however, must go to Goldman’s straddle, where it seems the ‘technical’ analyst (someone who can draw straight lines) is […]
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