Copa – a falling facon along with the ARG

Chasing rainbows for capital intensive businesses can be tricky, particularly if you’ve sunk a lot of capital only to find no crock of gold. This must be how Copa Holding must feel now, having thrown capital into building capacity in Argentina ahead of some particularly aggressive traffic growth forecasts. While traffic volumes has so far […]

Continue reading

Currency tail wagging investment dogs

A safe play would seem to be to bet on UK Sterling weakening further.  What matters is not that a ‘Hard Brexit’ might turn out a lot better for the economy than portrayed by ‘Project Fear’, or that Theresa May could still manage to secure Brino, but that evidence of the former would be beyond […]

Continue reading

June US jobs data – surprisingly stable

Yes, its out; the US non-farm payrolls for June.  In between love island, the World Cup footie and what counts as financial porn (endless tit-for tat negotiations on tariffs and Brexit) you might have missed these. For those fretting about interest rate rises on an overheating employment market, I shouldn’t worry too much that it […]

Continue reading

Do they know something? Informative conformity and stocks

The herding instinct is strong in markets. Solomon Asch would characterise this as ‘informative conformity’ where the participant would disbelieve the evidence of their own eyes and yield to the group think. In Asch’s experiments, the results were remarkable, particularly given the exclusion of outside variables beyond the comparative data (the height of the columns […]

Continue reading

Prosieben – a sub +1% growth stock or just oversold?

Spare a thought for those long suffering shareholders of German commercial TV stocks, RTL and Prosieben as Morgan Stanley dumped on the stocks with a negative report on Friday, sending them down a further 7% and -6% respectively against the DAX index that was up +1%. Presumably it was another rendition of the argument that […]

Continue reading

Are you applying the wrong valuation currency?

Prices are set by the marginal buyer, while financial markets establish conformity around valuation currencies that encourage buying, which in turn stimulates more borrowing and therefore more ‘moolah’ for those that dominate these markets.  The latter obscures the ‘real’ price that is being paid by the former, which is why they need tools such as […]

Continue reading
1 18 19 20 21 22 54