There is something rather ironic about Central Banks using deflation as an excuse to print cash which is then used to buy gold shares, which are of course a leveraged play on rising gold prices which in turn are a reflection of the lack of confidence in central bank monetary policies. For the Swiss CB […]
Continue reading
Although the GrowthRater is a relative engine to establish stock valuation and risk relative to to broader market equity returns, that doesn’t mean we aren’t keenly aware of what these are, or might become, it is just that we do not impose our view on whether this is good or bad on the investment process. […]
Continue reading
Another month of hints about imminent interest rate increases by Yellen and the Fed leak machine and we are probably no closer to an actual rate increase. At least in July we had another relatively firm private sector job creation and US auto sales to suggest that the super-low rate environment was well past its […]
Continue reading
Are milk prices on the turn? Over the last month powdered milk prices are up another +10%, which means prices are over +30% up from their low point in May. For milk producers and consumers (such as Danone) alike the question is whether this represents an early indicator of a change in longer term price […]
Continue reading
Another month and another non-farm payroll number for markets to chew on. After what is now looking to be an abnormal data point for May, private sector employment growth has now posted a second month of gains at over 200k. Stretch this out over a year and we are still talking an average monthly increase […]
Continue reading
Confused? Don’t worry, because you’re supposed to be. That way you can be sold a metric that has been anointed as the approved currency by which you are meant to determine the value of the goods or services being transacted. The fact that this currency may be flawed is fairly immaterial because it’s good for […]
Continue reading
Leaving to one side the possibility that recessionary fears are being used as another ruse to monetise intractable deficits, the current round of recession fears have the “Buy defensives” brigade out in force. One such stock that has been attracting such attention is our old friend Procter & Gamble. Back in 2008, this was also […]
Continue reading
What could possibly go wrong? Sky subscriptions are cyclically resilient because people go out less in recession and therefore spend more time at home where they value their telly subscriptions more. This was certainly true back in 2008 and before that for US cable in 2001. I should know, I was trotting out this argument […]
Continue reading