November non-farm payrolls – Bah Humbug!

I can hardly contain myself with excitement. US non-farm payroll data for November is out and the headlines are that the +321k MoM additions (+314k for the more relevant Private sector jobs) “smashes forecasts” (Guardian) and that “The dollar has gone through the roof” (City AM). With another month of unemployment at only 5.8% (try […]

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Airlines and oil prices

With fuel costs representing 45-50% of an airline’s operating costs and 35% of its revenues, it would seem self-evident that a significant movement in oil, and therefore fuel prices, would have an equally dramatic effect on margins; in particular when the industry’s margins are often the wrong side of 5%. The oil price however is […]

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P&G swaps Duracell at 7x EBITDA for shares in itself at 13x. Buffet wins again!

When a company such as P&G can sell 10 year debt at little more than a 3% coupon, then we should not be surprised at some of the pricing decisions being taken. With regards its subsidiary Duracell, it has a business in slow structural decline, which provides a drag to its own organic growth figures, […]

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ITV – Onus on content delivering the goods as NAR growth slows and audience share erodes

New management with a new veneer to the content strategy and a cyclical recovery in UK TV advertising have all encouraged markets to give ITV the benefit of the doubt that this time it can manage the transition from distribution monopolist to a more balanced content origination and distribution business, albeit in a considerably more […]

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Digital Plonkers

WPP’s annual digital investor day provided Sir Martin Sorrell another opportunity to show off his digital wares as well as take some entertaining swings at rivals; particularly the “plonkers” who had recently been over-paying (ie out-bidding WPP) for digital assets and particularly those in Brazil. Comment est-ce qu’on dit ça en Francaise Maurice?   At […]

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Recency bias – the curse of financial markets!

  We are all guilty of it, but it is probably the single most dangerous investment sin. Perhaps it is part of our social evolution to conform. A sort of “Eat shit 17 quadrillion flies can’t be wrong”. With regards to financial markets you may have seen the same shit, but given a pseudo- intellectual […]

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