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GrowthRater portfolio – closing longs on FedEx (+34% with +20% rel) and DMGT (+8% & +5% rel)

To pay for the Christmas presents, I’ll be closing a couple of long positions in the GrowthRater portfolio when markets open. One because it has done what I had hoped for and more (FedEx) and the other because it is increasing looking like dead money, or worse, in the face of deterioration in its markets […]

Gold & Gold miners – when to buy and how to value

The gold price might be troublesome to predict, but at least the relationship between this and the share price of gold miners such as Barrick are proving to be more reliable. Back in July when I initiated coverage, I suggested markets were applying what seemed to be a ridiculously simple valuation methodology. Forget IRR with […]

Fed rate rise – Cui Bono?

After raising its Federal funds target range to 0.25-0.5% in December 2015, Yellen has waited exactly a year and now edged up rates a further +25bps as the target range is raised to 0.5-0.75%, while also signalling that these could rise to around 1.4% by the end of 2017, thereby suggesting three further +25bps increases […]

What equity valuations might be trying to tell you!

Hang on, according to the ‘experts’, this wasn’t supposed to happen! Having been fed a diet of gloom by everyone from Hedgies (Bridgewater), Academics/Economists (Dartmouth/MITI/Krugman), Banks (Citi) and wealthy investors (Mark Cuban – see end for links) should Trump get elected, markets have done what they do best and confound the experts, with US equity […]

If rates rise, it won’t have anything to do with the US jobs data

It’s the first Friday of the month again and I’ve woken to Punxsutawney Phil and predictions of imminent interest rate increases following the traditional release of the US non-farm payroll numbers; this time for November. Notwithstanding these are probably even less meaningful than normal given the Presidential elections at the beginning of the month it […]

US Agency revenue growth plummets in Q3 – the canary in the mine

With less than a week to go and Trump edging ahead in some polls, albeit possibly still behind with regards electoral college votes, there’s going to be some sweaty palms in financial markets. A month ago, a Clinton victory may have seemed like a slam dunk and indeed one bookie (Paddy Power Betfair) was reported […]

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