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Adjustments to seasonal adjustments ‘add’ +101k jobs to December’s reported non-farm payroll figure
+144k net private sector job additions in December may a little below the trend, but with the previous two months revised up by +53k, this is probably where most of the headlines will stop, although Fed diehards may also point to the further rise in average hourly wages to a ten year high of +2.9% […]
Continue readingGrowthRater portfolio – closing longs on FedEx (+34% with +20% rel) and DMGT (+8% & +5% rel)
To pay for the Christmas presents, I’ll be closing a couple of long positions in the GrowthRater portfolio when markets open. One because it has done what I had hoped for and more (FedEx) and the other because it is increasing looking like dead money, or worse, in the face of deterioration in its markets […]
Continue readingGold & Gold miners – when to buy and how to value
The gold price might be troublesome to predict, but at least the relationship between this and the share price of gold miners such as Barrick are proving to be more reliable. Back in July when I initiated coverage, I suggested markets were applying what seemed to be a ridiculously simple valuation methodology. Forget IRR with […]
Continue readingFed rate rise – Cui Bono?
After raising its Federal funds target range to 0.25-0.5% in December 2015, Yellen has waited exactly a year and now edged up rates a further +25bps as the target range is raised to 0.5-0.75%, while also signalling that these could rise to around 1.4% by the end of 2017, thereby suggesting three further +25bps increases […]
Continue readingWhat equity valuations might be trying to tell you!
Hang on, according to the ‘experts’, this wasn’t supposed to happen! Having been fed a diet of gloom by everyone from Hedgies (Bridgewater), Academics/Economists (Dartmouth/MITI/Krugman), Banks (Citi) and wealthy investors (Mark Cuban – see end for links) should Trump get elected, markets have done what they do best and confound the experts, with US equity […]
Continue readingIf rates rise, it won’t have anything to do with the US jobs data
It’s the first Friday of the month again and I’ve woken to Punxsutawney Phil and predictions of imminent interest rate increases following the traditional release of the US non-farm payroll numbers; this time for November. Notwithstanding these are probably even less meaningful than normal given the Presidential elections at the beginning of the month it […]
Continue readingUS Agency revenue growth plummets in Q3 – the canary in the mine
With less than a week to go and Trump edging ahead in some polls, albeit possibly still behind with regards electoral college votes, there’s going to be some sweaty palms in financial markets. A month ago, a Clinton victory may have seemed like a slam dunk and indeed one bookie (Paddy Power Betfair) was reported […]
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