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How many jobs added in July??
Perhaps Biden was correct and this is not a recession, as the US reports another increase in monthly private sector jobs in July. This time from June’s reported +404k net adds to almost half a million (+471k) in July, with annualised hourly wages meanwhile increasing by +5.6%. But hang on, if one strips out the […]
Continue readingIs the US Fed bottling out already?
Jerome Powell seems eager to talk the talk on tackling inflation, but has yet to walk the walk. According to his 4 May published plan, the initial reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet should have kicked off at approx $47.5bn per month from 1 June, rising to $95bn per month by September. However, in the […]
Continue readingThe monster from the ID – inflation
The 1956 movie Forbidden Planet was at its core a tale of hubris; that technology can overcome nature, whether for Krell or human. The analogy for markets might be the conceit that the business cycle can be expunged without consequence and that one can borrow oneself out of debt. Like the ‘monster from the Id’ […]
Continue readingRising Bond Yields & a Flattening Curve
A flattening yield curve is often seen as an ominous portend of economic doom, while a forced increase in interest rates can often ensure its delivery. This convergence however, is the conclusion of a tale that has been in the making for a couple of decades, but one where the inflationary consequences now threaten to […]
Continue readingUS debt ceiling and the point of no return
What is the drifting gold price trying to tell us, because rising inflation and reckless government fiscal policies suggests impending currency debasement? Is this just another case of cognitive dissonance, that has accompanied COVID-19(84), or perhaps a temporary phenomena such as a big holder being forced to sell gold to raise USD to cover some […]
Continue readingFed flip-flops on tapering again – haven’t we been here before?
A solid monthly jobs report and the Fed rushes out some rumours that it may bring forward the supposed planned tapering. Yes, they’re that obvious! From the subsequent -6% drop in the gold price, it would seem a few precious metal traders were happy to take the bait, although the lack of follow through from […]
Continue readingJune employment data – enough to keep the various bull(S) spin machines fed
June’s US non-farm payroll numbers probably contain enough straws for punters to continue to spin a positive prognosis for markets. A further rise in monthly private sector jobs of +662k, suggests the US recovery is building, but the modest increase in average earnings, given these are focused on the lower paid and more transitory jobs […]
Continue readingCommand economics, or just fantasy financing?
Are the lockdowns really an attempt to spare over-whelming health services, or an excuse to bail out all those bad loans sitting on bank balance sheets since 2008? Either way, as IFR data emerges and debt liabilities spiral out of control, the justification and ability to sustain these policies are crumbling. Without central bank support […]
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