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If rates rise, it won’t have anything to do with the US jobs data
It’s the first Friday of the month again and I’ve woken to Punxsutawney Phil and predictions of imminent interest rate increases following the traditional release of the US non-farm payroll numbers; this time for November. Notwithstanding these are probably even less meaningful than normal given the Presidential elections at the beginning of the month it […]
Continue readingSeptember US non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations – again
The headline seemed so authoritative (“U.S. nonfarm payroll job growth seen pushing case for Fed hikes”) and coming from Reuters as well! http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN1270BP Unfortunately, notwithstanding coming off a weak August, September’s non-farm payroll additions of +156k (and +167k for the private sector) fell short of the +175k predicted from Reuters survey of economists. So does […]
Continue readingAuto & jobs slowdown in August – another excuse for the Fed not to raise rates!
Another month of hints about imminent interest rate increases by Yellen and the Fed leak machine and we are probably no closer to an actual rate increase. At least in July we had another relatively firm private sector job creation and US auto sales to suggest that the super-low rate environment was well past its […]
Continue readingAnother US non-farm payroll report and probably another deferral of the interest rate increase
The Fed it seems is off the hook for an interest rate increase for at least another month after the May non-farm payroll number. At +38k of net additions for the month (+25k for private sector) and with March and April figures also restated down by -59k, this is hardly the escape velocity of a […]
Continue reading“Beware the Ides of March” – FOMC rate increase more likely after February’s US jobs data
“And standing here tonight, I’m afraid that I don’t hear – a – thing. Just… silence. …” John Tuld – Margin Call We are approaching what may prove to be a formative FOMC meeting on 15-16 March. After earlier macro growth fears out of China and a widening cadre of central bankers going full retard with NIRP, there […]
Continue readingPreparing for a possible recession from end 2016
Economics is proving to be a little like a tube of toothpaste. Squeeze it one place and the toothpaste is just displaced elsewhere. When the Fed adopted what was already a failing Japanese experiment in QE in 2008/09, it provided a much needed liquidity fix for the credit crisis, but a dangerous temptation that […]
Continue readingUS dollar rise has further to go before the Fed will panic
After the equity market drubbing into the first week of 2016, attention was back on the Fed and whether an expected weak set of employment data for December might provide some political cover to forestall the next upward revision in interest rates possibly due in March. If the Fed holds rates however, it won’t be […]
Continue readingExpect Yellen to chicken out again on rate rise for September
Will she or won’t she? It seems with Fed interest rate policy remaining the only game in town, strategists are stuck with trying to second guess Yellen’s next move at the forthcoming FOMC on 16-17 September. Of course we’ve been here before and we can look at all the evidence and data under the sun […]
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